03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 N 69.9 W OR 910 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL APPEARS THAT HE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AN EYE IS ONCE AGAIN VISIBLE ON SATELLITE THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF SHEARING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF EARL. WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KTS. EARL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DESPITE THE SHEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS HE MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. AS EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START IN ABOUT 84 TO 96 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13 KTS. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN WOBBLES AS THE CASE WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE WHEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MY FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST TO WITHIN 60 MILES OF CAPE HATTERAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF EARL AND AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/03Z 23.0 N 69.9 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.5 N 71.3 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.8 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 29.4 N 74.6 W 115 KTS
03/03Z 32.3 N 74.9 W 110 KTS
04/03Z 37.5 N 70.5 W 95 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 62.0 W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 52.5 N 54.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON