TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 N 55.3 W OR 440 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.
FIONA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION. THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORMS SOME...WINDS STILL REMAIN AT 35 KTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY IN SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH I HAVE INDICATED IN MY FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT AGAINST FIONA THAT COULD CAUSE HER TO DISSIPATE ALSO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIONA WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRICTLY DEPENDENT UPON THAT FIONA CAN SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.
INITIAL MOTION IS A RAPID 285/22 KTS. FIONA WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS SHE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST IS AN UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT FIONA WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SAME TROUGH THAT WILL PULL EARL OUT TO SEA...PULL FIONA OUT TO SEA AS WELL. BUT THE MODELS ARE VERY DIVERSE IN THE LONG TERM TRACK FROM FIONA...SO AREAS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BERMUDA AND EVEN THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
31/15Z 15.9 N 55.3 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 17.0 N 57.7 W 40 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.8 W 45 KTS
02/03Z 20.6 N 63.7 W 50 KTS
02/15Z 23.0 N 65.9 W 50 KTS
03/15Z 27.0 N 68.0 W 50 KTS
04/15Z 29.0 N 67.0 W 50 KTS
05/15Z 30.5 N 66.5 W 60 KTS
JACKSON
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