21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 11
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 N 68.8 W OR 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL/S EYEWALL HAVE BEGUN TO REFORM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WITH SHEAR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KTS. EARL COULD BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS EARL MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST 305/12 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STEER EARL IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY STEER EARL RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 60 TO 72 HOURS...COMING VERY CLOSE TO THE NC COAST. FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN UPDATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

BECAUSE OF THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND UNCERTAINTY OF EARL...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA COAST IF EARL/S TRACK CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/21Z 22.0 N 68.8 W 115 KTS
01/09Z 23.1 N 70.4 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 25.1 N 72.4 W 120 KTS
02/09Z 27.5 N 74.1 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.5 N 75.0 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.5 W 95 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 63.5 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON