21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 N 59.5 W OR 150 MILES EAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL IS WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB/28.88 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND WITH VERY WARM SSTs...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH EARL WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...I HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THE PEAK INTENSITY A BIT TO 105 KTS IN 72 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE 115 KTS THAT NHC IS FORECASTING DUE IN PART THAT EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LEAST ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH TEMPORARILY WEAKEN HURRICANES. BEYOND DAY 4...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTs AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 KTS. EARL HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS EARL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EARL WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 AND FORECAST MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL EARL TO THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DIRECTLY...BUT AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL HAVE INDIRECT AFFECTS. FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF NHCS FORECAST TRACK. AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL POSSIBLY BRING A MAJOR HURRICANE CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS...SO THOSE AREAS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/21Z 17.6 N 59.5 W 75 KTS
30/09Z 18.3 N 61.2 W 80 KTS
30/21Z 19.4 N 63.2 W 95 KTS
31/09Z 20.6 N 65.0 W 100 KTS
31/21Z 22.0 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/21Z 26.0 N 69.5 W 105 KTS
02/21Z 32.0 N 71.0 W 105 KTS
03/21Z 38.0 N 67.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON