HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9 N 65.8 W OR 105 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.
IT SEEMS THAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT EARL HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO STOP STRENGTHENING SOME. MIMIC SHOWS WINDS OF 115 KTS AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THAT WILL HALT STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE. ALSO THERE IS SOME SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN EARL...IN FACT I STILL HAVE EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND FINALLY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS EARL WILL MOVE THROUGH A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.
EARLS INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL CONTINUES ON HIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES WITH EARL WHICH IS EXPECTED WHEN HURRICANES ARE THIS STRONG. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH I DID ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY BOOST EARL OUT TO SEA. HOW SOON WILL THIS HAPPEN AS EARL APPROACHES THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF EARL SO AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND STILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. I/M EXPECTING THAT POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
31/03Z 19.9 N 65.8 W 115 KTS
31/15Z 20.9 N 67.3 W 125 KTS
01/03Z 22.2 N 69.6 W 125 KTS
01/15Z 23.7 N 71.6 W 120 KTS
02/03Z 25.9 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.5 N 74.5 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 37.0 N 70.0 W 85 KTS
05/03Z 43.5 N 59.5 W 65 KTS
JACKSON
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