03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 N 43.2 W OR 1205 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS DANIELLE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 13 MBS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ADT NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.3 AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0/4.0 BUT I BELIEVE THAT DANIELLE MAY BE STRONGER WITH AN EYE CLEARLY DEFINED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE. BASED ON THAT...I HAVE INCREASED DANIELLE TO 75 KTS. DANIELLE IS UNDER AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HER STRENGTH AND I HAVE INCREASED THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP ANOTHER 5 KTS FROM THE LAST FORECAST. I EXPECT THAT DANIELLE WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PEAK STRENGTH TO 105 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THAT DANIELLE COULD EASILY BE STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST I HAVE. DANIELLE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN TO BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5 AS SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL EFFECT THE STORM.

INITIAL MOTION 285/17. DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY AROUND 36 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS IS STILL BEING INDICATED BY THE FORECAST MODELS...NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL DANIELLE MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. MY NEW FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE DANIELLE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE SINCE BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BUT STILL REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND REMAINS CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/03Z 15.6 N 43.2 W 75 KTS
24/15Z 16.6 N 44.9 W 90 KTS
25/03Z 18.2 N 47.3 W 100 KTS
25/15Z 20.0 N 49.8 W 105 KTS
26/03Z 22.0 N 52.0 W 105 KTS
27/03Z 27.5 N 55.0 W 105 KTS
28/03Z 28.5 N 57.5 W 100 KTS
29/03Z 32.0 N 58.5 W 95 KTS

JACKSON