15Z Tropical Update #1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 N 30.8 W OR 430 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A FEW DAYS AGO QUICKLY GOT ORGANIZED AND WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.0/2.0 AND A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND DECENT OUTFLOW...THIS HAS NOW BECOME DEPRESSION AND CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS DEPRESSION IS UNDER AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY. VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL LIKELY MAKE THIS DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND COULD SLOW DOWN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS DEPRESSION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE IT CAPPED AT A CATEGORY 2 85 KTS HURRICANE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH NHCs FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHERE LIKE DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE AND TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLUSTERED IN THE MOTION OF TD 7 AND MY FORECAST IS ALONG THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING TD 7 TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/15Z 14.3 N 30.8 W 30 KTS
26/03Z 14.9 N 33.4 W 35 KTS
26/15Z 15.6 N 36.5 W 40 KTS
27/03Z 16.5 N 39.5 W 50 KTS
27/15Z 17.1 N 42.6 W 60 KTS
28/15Z 18.0 N 48.5 W 75 KTS
29/15Z 19.0 N 54.0 W 80 KTS
30/15Z 21.0 N 58.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON