15Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2 N 58.4 W OR 225 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB/29.09 IN.

EARL HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT 1230Z...RECON FOUND THAT EARL WAS A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SHEAR IS DECREASING FROM EARL AND WITH WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25 AND 27C...ALL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT EARL WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS WITH FEW MODELS BRINGING EARL TO CATEGORY 4 STATUS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS EARL AT 110 KTS...AND THIS SIDES CLOSELY TO NHCs FORECAST. AS DAYS 4 AND 5 APPROACHES...SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARL...BUT IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.

EARL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15 KTS. EARL IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS WILL CAUSE EARL TO BEGIN THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE AND SLOW DOWN. FORECAST MODELS ARE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF EARL AND CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...WHEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE. BY DAY 5...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE WEST COULD BRING EARL VERY CLOSE TO A OUTER BANKS LANDFALL...SO AREAS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE DELMARVA IN PARTICULARLY NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/15Z 17.2 N 58.4 W 65 KTS
30/03Z 18.0 N 60.1 W 75 KTS
30/15Z 19.0 N 62.3 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 20.1 N 64.3 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.4 N 66.1 W 100 KTS
01/15Z 25.0 N 69.5 W 105 KTS
02/15Z 31.0 N 72.0 W 110 KTS
03/15Z 37.5 N 70.0 W 100 KTS

JACKSON