03Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9 N 61.1 W OR 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB/28.67 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 85 KTS ON THE SURFACE WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL HAVE AN OPEN 30 MILE EYE AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STILL IS LOWER THAN NHCS INTENSITY FORECAST WHERE THEIR FORECASTING EARL TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. AS EARL MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...EARL WILL RUN INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION OF EARL REMAINS 285/13 AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MOTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO MY FORECAST TRACK AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT HESITANT ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST I HAVE SHIFTED MY FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL EARL OUT TO SEA. THE LONG TERM FORECAST I DID ADJUST TO THE EAST AND IS ON LINE WITH NHCS FORECAST TRACK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND WHAT...IF ANY DIRECT AFFECTS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE EAST COAST...SO AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 17.9 N 61.1 W 85 KTS
30/15Z 18.7 N 62.6 W 90 KTS
31/03Z 20.0 N 64.6 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.3 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/03Z 22.7 N 68.4 W 105 KTS
02/03Z 27.5 N 71.5 W 105 KTS
03/03Z 33.5 N 72.0 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 40.5 N 65.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON