21Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 53.1 W OR 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE BEEN TRYING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO GATHER MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR THAT HAVE BEEN PLAUGING THIS SYSTEM THE PAST 36 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES AS OF 1745Z WAS AT 4.5/4.5 WHILE THE ADT WAS AT 3.8. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHEN IT WILL ONCE AGAIN RELAX TO BELOW 10 KTS...GIVING DANIELLE ABOUT A 48 HOUR WINDOW TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WEAKEN DANIELLE. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY UP 5 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEFORE DANIELLE BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN 4 DAYS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NHCs.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 315/15. DANIELLE HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT IS BEGINNING TO FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE GREATLY AS TO WHERE DANIELLE WILL GO. THIS LARGE DIVERGENCE IN MODELS SUGGEST A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TRACK OF DANIELLE. NOGAPS IS STILL THE OUTLIER AS THAT MODEL WANT TO BRING DANIELLE VERY CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA WITHING 180 HOURS (OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD)...WHILE THE LBAR RECURVES DANIELLE COMPLETELY TO THE NORTHEAST. I/M LEANING (WITH LOW CONFIDENCE MIGHT I ADD) THAT DANIELLE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGIN THE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...SO RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE TRACK OF DANIELLE AS WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/21Z 21.2 N 53.1 W 75 KTS
26/09Z 22.0 N 54.7 W 75 KTS
26/21Z 23.4 N 56.6 W 85 KTS
27/09Z 24.5 N 58.2 W 85 KTS
27/21Z 26.0 N 60.0 W 90 KTS
28/21Z 29.0 N 63.0 W 95 KTS
29/21Z 32.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/21Z 35.5 N 60.5 W 80 KTS

JACKSON