21Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

RESIDENTS OF BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 N 48.2 W OR 895 MILES EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...LITTLE CHANCE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB/29.32 IN.

DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO FEEL THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN FURTHER TO 3.0/4.0 AND ADT NUMBERS DOWN TO 3.6 ALL INDICATING THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DOWN FURTHER TO 60 KTS. I/M NOT EXPECTING DANIELLE TO WEAKEN MUCH MORE. AFTER ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN RELAX AND DANIELLE WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND COULD BE AS STRONG AS DANIELLE WAS JUST 12 HOURS AGO.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16 KTS. DANIELLE/S FORECAST TRACK HAVE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS DANIELLE IS WEAKENING AND WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE WEST. I AM STILL EXPECTING THE RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN STEERING TO WEAKEN AND THAT WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY STEER DANIELLE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DANIELLE/S TRACK MOVING FURTHER TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN INCREASED DANGER TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...SO FOLKS ON THAT ISLAND CHAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/21Z 17.5 N 48.2 W 60 KTS
25/09Z 18.3 N 52.0 W 60 KTS
25/21Z 19.7 N 52.2 W 60 KTS
26/03Z 21.0 N 54.4 W 60 KTS
26/21Z 22.3 N 56.1 W 65 KTS
27/21Z 25.5 N 59.0 W 75 KTS
28/21Z 29.5 N 61.0 W 85 KTS
29/21Z 33.0 N 62.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON