21Z Tropical Update

COR TO INPUT MISSING INFORMATION
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4 N 41.5 W OR 1320 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB/29.15 IN.

DANIELLE HAS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH BANDING FEATURES IMPROVING. 1745Z DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0/4.0 AND THE ADT NUMBERS HAVE CLIMBED TO 4.2 WHICH EQUALS TO 72 KTS. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 65 KTS...WHICH MAKES DANIELLE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON. DANIELLE MAY BE GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE DUE TO THE WARM SSTs AND SHEAR NOW LESS THAN 10 KTS. I HAVE UPPED THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO MAKE DANIELLE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES. SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 72 HOURS AND SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THE FORECAST INDICATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15 KTS. DANIELLE IS STILL BEING STEERED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MY UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE WITH NHCs AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/21Z 15.4 N 41.5 W 65 KTS
24/09Z 16.0 N 43.2 W 80 KTS
24/21Z 17.4 N 45.8 W 90 KTS
25/09Z 19.1 N 48.3 W 100 KTS
25/21Z 21.1 N 50.6 W 100 KTS
26/21Z 24.5 N 54.0 W 100 KTS
27/21Z 28.0 N 56.0 W 100 KTS
28/21Z 32.0 N 57.5 W 100 KTS

JACKSON