21Z Tropical Update-Earl

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4 N 32.2 W OR 520 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

EARL HAVE SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 AND ADT AT 2.5...EARL HAS BEEN BORN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS. EARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IS LIKELY THAT EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. I DO NOT HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT EARL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST IN ABOUT 84 HOURS...SHEAR FROM THE NORTH COULD IMPACT EARL AND COULD SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STOP THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS...SO BROUGHT DOWN THE PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 80 KTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KTS. EARL IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS STEERING DANIELLE. FORECAST FOR EARL IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE AS EARL IN TIME WILL FOLLOW THE SAME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...EARL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHAT EFFECT IF ANY WILL EARL HAVE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DO BRING EARL CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST IN ABOUT 7 TO 10 DAYS IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SO ALL AREAS FROM FLORIDA TO VIRGINIA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/21Z 14.4 N 32.2 W 35 KTS
26/09Z 15.0 N 34.3 W 40 KTS
26/21Z 15.9 N 37.3 W 50 KTS
27/09Z 16.7 N 40.4 W 60 KTS
27/21Z 17.4 N 43.6 W 70 KTS
28/21Z 18.5 N 50.0 W 75 KTS
29/21Z 19.0 N 55.5 W 75 KTS
30/21Z 21.0 N 60.0 W 80 KTS

JACKSON