TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:28 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0 N 50.8 W OR 745 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.
FIONA IS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 2.0/2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. FIONA ACTUALLY HAVE SOME CHANCES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE RATHER LIMITED. FIONA WILL MOVE THROUGH WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR COULD BRING FIONA UP TO A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM. THEN FIONA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL AND FIONA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FIONA WILL NOT SURVIVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MY INTENSITY FORECAST HAD DECREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21 KTS. FIONA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS STEERED EARL. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECT DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN A MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS FIONA FOLLOWS THE RIDGE. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF FAIRLY DIVERSE MODELS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
31/03Z 15.0 N 50.8 W 35 KTS
31/15Z 15.7 N 53.4 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 16.9 N 56.8 W 35 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.2 W 40 KTS
02/03Z 20.7 N 63.1 W 45 KTS
03/03Z 25.5 N 67.0 W 45 KTS
04/03Z 27.5 N 67.5 W 40 KTS
05/03Z 28.5 N 68.5 W 40 KTS
JACKSON
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