15Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:27 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 67.9 W OR 1070 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

EARL HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE OF 939 MB...WHICH MEANS THAT EARL IS VERY WELL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. I/M NOT FORECAST FOR EARL TO GET MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT HE IS NOT...IN FACT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. SO EARL WILL BEGIN HIS WEAKENING PROCESS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL IS REMAINING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARL SHOULD BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME TODAY AS THE LONGER EARL REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST...ALSO WILL BRING INCREASED AFFECTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO WATCHING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO SEE WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK STILL CALLS FOR EARL TO REMAIN OFF SHORE...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE STILL SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER WEST. FORECAST TRACK DO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...THEN IT/S AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MAY SEE HURRICANE WATCHES POSTED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 21.2 N 67.9 W 115 KTS
01/03Z 22.3 N 69.5 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.0 N 71.5 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.2 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 28.9 N 74.3 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 72.5 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 42.5 N 64.5 W 85 KTS
05/15Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON