03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 7
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED 18.2 N 49.8 W OR 795 MILES EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB/29.23 IN.

DANIELLE IS TRYING TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED AND THERE IS LESS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN THE SYSTEM AND THOUGH IT IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR...DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/4.0 AND ADT NUMBERS OF 3.8...DANIELLE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH 65 KTS. DANIELLE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN DANIELLE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS BEFORE SOUTHWEST SHEAR INCREASE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/16. DANIELLE IS MOVING ALONG THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY SHOWED AND THIS COULD DELAY THE TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND AGAIN CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/03Z 18.2 N 49.8 W 65 KTS
25/15Z 19.3 N 51.5 W 65 KTS
26/03Z 20.8 N 53.7 W 65 KTS
26/15Z 21.8 N 55.3 W 65 KTS
27/03Z 23.6 N 57.3 W 70 KTS
28/03Z 26.5 N 60.5 W 85 KTS
29/03Z 30.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/03Z 31.5 N 63.0 W 80 KTS

JACKSON