0100Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1200Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave about 350 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands have become better organized during the past 12 hours and some additional development is possible before the low moves into a less favorable environment within the next 12 to 24 hours. The low is moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0000Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands is producing some showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are favorable for additional slow development over the next few days as the wave moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropical wave located near the Cape Verde Islands is producing some showers and storms. Upper level winds are favorable for some slow development over the next few days as the wave moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropcial storm development is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

While there are areas of thunderstorms across the Atlantic...nothing is developing and not expected to within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropics remain quiet and tropical storm formation not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Tropics remain quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

Currently the tropical Atlantic is quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure...associated with the remnants of Fred continues to produce areas of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are expected to become increasingly favorable for development over the next few days as the low moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Broad area of low pressure located about 1150 miles east of the Windward Islands have seen some of its thunderstorms decrease during the past few hours...however conditions remain favorable for further development and a depression could still form over the next few days as the low moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1600Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure...associated with the remnants of Fred is continuing to produce showers and thunderstorms and have been showing signs of developing recently. An Air Force Recon Aircraft will be investigating this low pressure later today as the low moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Area of low pressure about 1150 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to show signs of organization and a depression could form over the next day or two as the low moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected over the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Fred located about 450 miles south-southwest of Bermuda is producing unorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are not favorable for development as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Area of low pressure about 960 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization...however upper level winds are marginally favorable for further development as the low moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0400Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure development in association of the remnants of Fred about 525 miles south-southwest of Bermuda. Upper level winds are not favorable for development at this time as the low moves westward around 10 mph.

Tropical wave about 950 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands have seen an increase in thunderstorm activity. Upper level winds are favorable for some slow development during the next couple of days as the low moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected during the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

The remnants of Fred located over the Central Atlantic have lost some of its thunderstorms during the overnight hours...however could be moving into an area slightly more favorable for some redevelopment as the remnants move to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave 430 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands have lost its concentration of showers and thunderstorms during the overnight hours. Development of this low will be slow to occur as the low moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected during the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0500Z Tropical Outlook

The remnants of Fred...located over the Central Atlantic have seen its thunderstorms increase during the day and upper level winds are marginally favorable for some redevelopment over the next few days as the remnants move to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Area of low pressure about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands have also seen its thunderstorms increase during the past few hours. Upper level winds are also marginally favorable for slow development over the next few days as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected during the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0100Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Fred

At 9:00 PM EDT (0100Z)...the center of Hurricane Fred is located near 12.3 N 30.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is to the west-northwest near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest by Thursday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb/29.15 in.

Fred during the day...continue to increase in strength and the MIMIC-IR have estimated winds at 64 kts...and though Dvorak Estimates only show winds of 55 kts...I do believe that Fred have become a minimum hurricane so 65 kts is the initial intensity. Fred will move through a favorable environment over the next few days and I have peaked Fred at 75 kts in about 36 hours...before cooler water temperatures and increasing shear will cause Fred to weaken rapidly towards days 3 through 5...and would not be surprised if Fred weaken by day 4 with shear expected to increase to over 50 kts.

Initial motion 290/10 kts. Fred will continue to move on a west-northwest track for about another 12 hours...followed by a track to the northwest and then northeast in about 72 hours as a series of deep troughs will influence the track of Fred and not affect any portion of land areas...though there are a few of the forecast models that do want to pull Fred back on a north-northwest course in about 4 days...haven/t seen enough evidence of this yet in the mid to upper levels to make that definitive change yet...so overall forecast track is an update from the earlier track.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

09/01Z 12.3 N 30.3 W 65 kts

09/13Z 13.4 N 32.3 W 70 kts

10/01Z 14.5 N 34.4 W 75 kts

10/13Z 15.5 N 36.1 W 75 kts

11/01Z 16.3 N 37.1 W 70 kts

12/01Z 17.5 N 37.0 W 55 kts

13/01Z 19.0 N 35.5 W 40 kts

14/01Z 22.0 N 33.5 W 25 kts...becoming extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Fred

At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Fred is located near 11.8 N 27.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 mph...some further strengthening is expected and Fred could become a hurricane later today or on Wednesday. Motion is to the west at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest later today or on Wednesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb/29.53 in.

Fred...while at times had to get decent satellite pictures...continues to get better organized. The MIMIC-IR have estimated winds at 48 kts or 55 mph...so this is the initial intensity. Last night...I trimmed down the intensity forecast a tad...now I'm trimming it back up and think now that Fred could reach minimum hurricane strength in about 24 hours since environmental conditions still remain favorable for about another 3 days...then as Fred moves into cooler waters and higher shear...Fred will begin his quick demise as I have lowered Fred from a category 1 hurricane in 72 hours to barely a storm in 5 days...and even during this time there is a chance depending on how quickly the shear and cooler waters take over Fred could be extratropical by this time.

Initial motion 270/13 kts. I/m expecting for this motion to continue for about another 12 to 24 hours...then followed by a turn to the west-northwest in response to several deep troughs moving off the East Coast that in turn will pull Fred to the northwest then the northeast in time...never reaching 40 W. Fred will remain a fish storm as it cruises the far Eastern Atlantic during the forecast period...may have some impacts on the Azores Islands in 5 to 7 days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

08/13Z 11.8 N 27.8 W 48 kts

09/01Z 12.4 N 29.3 W 55 kts

09/13Z 13.1 N 31.8 W 65 kts

10/01Z 13.8 N 34.0 W 65 kts

10/13Z 14.6 N 35.6 W 65 kts

11/13Z 16.0 N 36.0 W 65 kts

12/13Z 17.5 N 34.5 W 50 kts

13/13Z 20.0 N 32.5 W 35 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Fred

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Fred is located near 12.6 N 25.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Motion is towards the west at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.

Satellite pictures at times have been hard to obtain at times with the and have continued to look better organized so have upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Fred. Even though Fred looks organized on satellite with ADT numbers around 2.5...overall I have lowered my intensity forecast slightly from the last update to keep it as a strong tropical storm rather than a minimum hurricane. Increasing shear and cooler water temperatures will cause for the storm to weaken in about 96 hours and could even become extratropical by the end of the forecast period.
Initial motion is 275/14 kts. Fred is being steered by a subtropical ridge over the Central Atlantic. This motion will be fairly short lived as a series of deep troughs moving off the East Coast of the U.S. will greatly influence the track of the Fred and my forecast track do not bring Fred any further west than 36 W as the Fred will not affect any major land areas during the forecast period...however will cause some squally weather to the Cape Verde Island during the next 24 to 30 hours.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

08/03Z 12.6 N 25.5 W 30 kts

08/15Z 12.9 N 27.8 W 40 kts

09/03Z 13.6 N 30.3 W 45 kts

09/15Z 14.4 N 32.6 W 50 kts

10/03Z 15.3 N 34.5 W 60 kts

11/03Z 17.5 N 36.0 W 60 kts

12/03Z 20.0 N 34.5 W 50 kts

13/03Z 22.0 N 34.0 W 45 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

2100Z Tropical Update

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of newly formed Tropical Depression 7 is located near 12.5 N 24.5 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph and strengthening is expected and could become a tropical storm later tonight or on Tuesday. Movement is to the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest on Tuesday...on the forecast track...the depression should remain south of the Cape Verde Islands. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

The wave that moved off the African coast developed fairly rapidly and maintained its concentration of thunderstorms and thus have become the 7th depression of the season. Dvorak Estimates right now places the depression at 1.5 and makes sense that the inital intensity will be 30 kts. Conditions will be favorable for a few days for the depression to continue to strengthen and should quickly become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours. Beyond that I do have the depression to briefly reach hurricane strength in 72 hours before weakening due to increased shear and decreasing temperatures.

Initial motion is 280/15 kts. This motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest in about 12 to 24 hours. A series of deep troughs will move off the East Coast over the course of the next several days and almost all the forecast models do not progress this system further west than 45 W and my forecast track indicates that this will for the most part be a fish storm or a storm that will only affect marine interest with the expection of the Cape Verde Islands...where they can expect some squally weather over the next few days.

Quick Note: Normally I would have a chart of the forecast positions...due to the fact that my chart do not extend as far east as the storm location...I will be posting satellite pictures of the storm.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

07/21Z 12.5 N 24.5 W 30 kts

08/09Z 12.9 N 26.6 W 35 kts

08/21Z 13.7 N 29.4 W 40 kts

09/09Z 14.5 N 32.2 W 50 kts

09/21Z 15.3 N 34.8 W 55 kts

10/21Z 17.5 N 37.5 W 65 kts

11/21Z 19.5 N 37.5 W 60 kts

12/21Z 20.5 N 36.5 W 50 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1500Z Tropical Outlook

Strong tropical wave located about 150 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands continue to show signs of development and a tropical depression could be forming. If conditions continue to show signs of additional development...then forecasts could be initiated this afternoon as the wave moves to the west at 15 to 20 mph.

Broad area of low pressure of the North Carolina coast is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and conditions are not favorable for development as this low moves northeast.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Outlook

Strong tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles east-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. Upper level winds remain favorable for further development and a tropical depression could form during the next few days as this wave moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1500Z Tropical Outlook

The remnants of Erika is producing showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Regeneration of this storm is not expected.

Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic is producing some showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are only marginal for some slow development as the wave moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical wave about 350 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands have become slightly better organized. Conditions will gradually become less favorable for development as the wave moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0600Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure located in the Central Atlantic have a small concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are marginally favorable for development as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Broad area of low pressure located northeast of the Cape Verde Islands have a limited area of showers and thunderstorms. While thunderstorms are limited...conditions are favorable for additional development over the next few days as this low moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm development is not expected within the next 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

The remnants of Erika...now located south of Puerto Rico have seen an increase of showers and thunderstorms...but conditions are not favorable at this time for regeneration as the low moves to the west at 5 to 10 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected in 24 hours.

Tropical storm watch remains in effect for Puerto Rico...and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Erika is located near 16.6 N 63.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...little change in strength is expected. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 7 mph...on the forecast track...Erika will move through Puerto Rico on Friday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb/29.83 in.

Yesterday...I had very little confidence in my forecast track and intensity...well most models after I posted my update shifted their models westward...meaning that I should have more confidence in my forecast. Well this morning...I intend to again go outside the box...especially with my intensity forecast. NHCs forecast call for Erika to dissipate in about 96 hours in a hostile environment...after looking at the current shear levels and intensity...there is a chance that Erika could survive the moderate to high shear...but could still get killed off by the proximity of land that she will be close to. So for my intensity forecast...I have slowly increased the winds of Erika to 50 kts while moving over Cuba in about 5 days. Of course her intensity will all depend on how close will she move to land...and westward track...and Erika would be killed off over Hispaniola with the high mountainous terrain. My track forecast...being that Erika is still a weak system though there are thunderstorms to the east of the center of circulation...will continue to be to the left of NHCs forecast track...but not west enough so that the circulation of Erika gets killed off. I expect that Erika could survive the next 5 days and potentially move into the Gulf...this of course remains to be seen over the next several days. If the shear relaxes as I/m thinking...Erika could strengthen a little more than what I have forecasted...therefore all areas Puerto Rico westward need to monitor the progress of Erika.

Forecast Position and Intensity

03/13Z 16.6 N 63.0 W 35 kts

04/01Z 17.6 N 64.6 W 40 kts

04/13Z 18.4 N 66.1 W 35 kts...over Puerto Rico

05/01Z 19.1 N 67.5 W 40 kts...over water

05/13Z 19.7 N 69.0 W 45 kts

06/13Z 20.5 N 72.0 W 45 kts

07/13Z 21.0 N 75.0 W 45 kts

08/13Z 22.0 N 78.0 W 50 kts...over Cuba

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions is expected within 24 hours.

At 9:00 AM EDT (1300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Erika is located near 17.1 N 59.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...little change in strength is expected today. Movement is towards the west at 10 mph...and this motion is expected to continue. Minimum central pressure as reported by Recon Aircraft 1008 mb/29.77 in.

The intensity forecast and the forecast track has changed significantly since the last update. There is not much confidence in both the forecast track or in the intensity of this update and there will likely be more changes over the next few days. Currently Erika is undergoing some shear and have weaken some and is down now to 40 kts. While I have Erika increasing in strength some...the fact that she is a weaker storm means that she will likely make more of a westerly track...therefore I now have adjusted my forecast track to move Erika through the Caribbean Sea...affecting Puerto Rico...the Virgin Islands...and Hispaniola during the next 4 days and due to the interaction of land areas...have adjusted the intensity forecast downward...and may not survive the next 5 days. All areas from Puerto Rico westward need to monitor the progress of this storm.

Forecast Positions and Intensity

02/13Z 17.1 N 59.3 W 40 kts

03/01Z 16.8 N 61.6 W 40 kts

03/13Z 17.4 N 63.1 W 45 kts

04/01Z 17.8 N 64.6 W 55 kts

04/13Z 18.2 N 66.1 W 50 kts...over Puerto Rico

05/13Z 18.5 N 69.0 W 45 kts...over Dominican Republic

06/13Z 19.0 N 72.5 W 35 kts...over Haiti

07/13Z 19.5 N 75.0 W 30 kts...over water

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

0300Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Erika

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible...generally 36 hours. Puerto Rico and the southeastern Bahamas need to monitor the progress of Erika.

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Erika is located near 17.4 N 57.7 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...some strengthening is possible and Erika could become a hurricane on Wednesday. Movement is to the northwest at 2 mph...and this motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed. Minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.

Erika have continued to develop during the day and have become a tropical storm...since then Erika have increased in strength and despite Dvorak Estimates of only 2.5 or 35 kts...Recon Aircraft have found winds in excess of 50 kts...and have gone with that for initial intensity. Erika will have about a 36 to 48 hour window to strengthen before encountering higher wind shear. I do expect for Erika to become a hurricane for about 24 hours...then weaken back down to a tropical storm. There are some models that dissipate Erika in 4 to 5 days...but the most reliable models do weaken Erika but not dissipate totally and have gone with this solution for the intensity forecast.

Initial motion 315/2 kts. Erika have been moving very little during the past 6 hours...but a west-northwest to northwest motion at around 9 to 11 kts is expected to resume in a few hours. Forecast models have been all over the place with this system since it was declared a invest last week. With the forecast for Erika to become weaker in a few days...have gone more on the left side of the model guidance over the next 3 to 5 days...which could impact the Bahamas and possibly the United States in 5 to 7 days. Therefore...areas on the Bahamas need to monitor the progress of this storm.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

02/03Z 17.4 N 57.7 W 50 kts

02/15Z 18.0 N 58.7 W 60 kts

03/03Z 18.8 N 60.0 W 70 kts

03/15Z 19.5 N 61.4 W 70 kts

04/03Z 20.0 N 62.9 W 70 kts

05/03Z 21.0 N 66.0 W 65 kts

06/03Z 22.0 N 69.0 W 55 kts

07/03Z 23.5 N 72.0 W 50 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist

1300Z Tropical Outlook

Area of low pressure located about 255 miles east of the Leeward Islands continue to show signs of organization and could become a tropical depression or storm at anytime today as this system moves to the west-northwest around 10 mph. The Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico need to monitor this system over the next few days.

Tropical wave moving off the African Coast is showing some signs of organization and further development is possible over the next few days as this system moves to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Elsewhere...tropical storm activity is not expected within 36 hours.

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist