15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6 N 46.5 W OR 985 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...WHILE DANIELLE HAVE WEAKEN SOME...FORECAST DOES CALL FOR DANIELLE TO RESTRENGTHEN WITHIN 12 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB/29.09 IN.

DANIELLE/S RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE HAVE COME TO A SCREECHING HALT. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR HAVE TAKEN OVER THE STORM SOMEWHAT...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES WENT DOWN TO 4.0/4.5 AND THE ADT AT 4.2...WITH THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL LAST ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS SO HOW MUCH FURTHER DANIELLE WILL WEAKEN IS UNKNOWN...BUT I AM STILL FORECASTING FOR STRENGTHENING...NOW BECAUSE OF DANIELLE WEAKENING...I HAVE ADJUSTED MY FORECAST TO KEEP DANIELLE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH NHCs FORECAST INTENSITY AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION 290/17. FORECAST TRACK THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PAST PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING DANIELLE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AGAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/15Z 16.6 N 46.5 W 70 KTS
25/03Z 17.3 N 48.1 W 80 KTS
25/15Z 18.7 N 50.5 W 80 KTS
26/03Z 20.1 N 52.5 W 80 KTS
26/15Z 21.6 N 54.1 W 85 KTS
27/15Z 25.0 N 56.5 W 85 KTS
28/15Z 28.0 N 59.0 W 95 KTS
29/15Z 32.0 N 60.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON