15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 13
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 AM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z THE EYE OF HURRICANE IS LOCATED 25.2 N 72.1 W OR 725 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON IS 943 MB/27.85 IN.

EARL...DESPITE A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST QUAD...EARL HAS WEAKEN A BIT AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS DOWN TO 110 KTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS THEN AS EARL MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH...EARL WILL MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION 320/15 KTS. EARL IS CONTINUING ON A NORTHWEST TREK ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AS HE FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND THIS TROUGH WILL KICK EARL TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT THE SEA. WHEN THE TROUGH KICKS IN AND PULL EARL TO THE NORTHEAST IS CRITICAL AS TO RATHER EARL BRUSHES WITH NORTH CAROLINA OR MAKE A LANDFALL. MY FORECAST TRACK IS UPDATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WILL BRING THE CORE OF EARL INLAND.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/15Z 25.2 N 72.1 W 110 KTS
02/03Z 26.7 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
02/15Z 29.8 N 74.8 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.7 N 75.1 W 110 KTS
03/15Z 34.4 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 41.0 N 65.5 W 80 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 49.5 N 55.5 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON