21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 N 64.7 W OR 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECON PLANE LEFT...ADT NUMBERS ARE ABOVE 6.0...WHICH NOW MAKES THIS A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING AS EARL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IN MY FORECAST...BUT NHC PEAKED EARL AT 130 KTS. I HAVE NOT GONE ABOVE 120 KTS BECAUSE EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LESS ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND DURING THAT TIME EARL WILL LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF ITS STRENGTH. ALSO BEYOND 72 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13 KTS. EARL IS STILL MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...WHICH IS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EARL MORE AND MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND IS SLOWLY INCREASING THE THREAT OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWER AND WILL NOT REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WITH THE DELAY MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...EARL WILL NOT BEGIN A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TURN UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...AREAS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS MY FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE WEST AND I DO BELIEVE THAT TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

NOTE: THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PLOT IS NOT ON THE MAP DUE TO A CLOSE UP MAP OF THE SOUTHEAST THAT I/M USING AND THE MAP DO NOT GO ANY FURTHER NORTH THAT 40 N. THIS MAP WILL USED UNTIL THE THREAT HAS SUBSIDED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 19.3 N 64.7 W 115 KTS
31/09Z 20.1 N 66.3 W 120 KTS
31/21Z 21.3 N 68.4 W 120 KTS
01/09Z 22.6 N 70.3 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 24.5 N 72.2 W 110 KTS
02/21Z 30.0 N 74.5 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.0 W 90 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 59.5 W 70 KTS

JACKSON