15Z Tropcial Update #2

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6 N 52.3 W OR 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE WESTERLY SHEAR...DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/4.0 WHICH SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DANIELLE AT 75 KTS...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RELAX...UNTIL THEN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF WEAKENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...DANIELLE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAY GO THROUGH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE DANIELLE MOVES INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST SHEAR BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS OF DANIELLE.

DANIELLE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15 KTS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A WEAKENING RIDGE AND A TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED. FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND THE SPREAD INCREASE AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVE OFF THE U.S. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS (NAVY) MODEL IS LIKELY THE OUTLIER WHICH BRING DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BRING DANIELLE OFF THE EAST COAST IN 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY...I THINK THAT DANIELLE WILL FEEL ENOUGH OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY 5 PERIOD. I STILL HAVE DANIELLE FORECAST TO COME CLOSE ENOUGH BERMUDA...THAT AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BEEN NEEDED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/15Z 19.6 N 52.3 W 75 KTS
26/03Z 20.7 N 53.8 W 75 KTS
26/15Z 22.0 N 55.7 W 80 KTS
27/03Z 23.1 N 57.3 W 80 KTS
27/15Z 24.3 N 58.7 W 85 KTS
28/15Z 27.5 N 61.5 W 90 KTS
29/15Z 30.5 N 63.0 W 90 KTS
30/15Z 32.5 N 62.5 W 80 KTS

JACKSON