15Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:04 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 11, 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM (1500Z)...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 IS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 86.8 W OR 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH AND SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB/29.77 IN.

DEEP BREATH...THIS DEPRESSION IS A LARGE...DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR. IT NOW APPEARS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT MUCH AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DVORAK AND ADT ARE ESTIMATING THAT WINDS ARE ONLY 25 KTS...AND WILL USE THIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUGGEST SOME VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST MODELS FOR THAT MATTER DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THIS DEPRESSION CAN REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I WILL HOLD ON FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST THAT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING QUICKLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY WEAKENS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 96 TO 120 HOURS.

DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL NEAR BURAS LA WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SLOW DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF WEAKNESS. THE DEPRESSION WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. FORECAST TRACK IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SIMILAR TO NHCs FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS WHERE MY FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF NHCs.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/15Z 27.8 N 86.8 W 25 KTS
12/03Z 28.7 N 88.0 W 30 KTS
12/15Z 29.6 N 89.4 W 35 KTS
13/03Z 30.6 N 90.1 W 20 KTS...INLAND
13/15Z 31.3 N 90.3 W 20 KTS...INLAND
14/15Z 32.5 N 90.0 W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
15/15Z 33.5 N 88.0 W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING

JACKSON