03Z Tropical Update-Earl

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 N 33.6 W OR 615 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH EARL. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.0/2.5 AND ADT AT 3.0. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. EARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT/S WHAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AND EARL WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DO NOT THINK THAT EARL WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN BY DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/14. LIKE TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN ITS DEVELOPING STAGE...EARL IS LIKELY HAVING ITS CENTER RELOCATED A FEW TIMES. FORECAST TRACK AND THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NHCs FORECAST TRACK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER EARL TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN FOLLOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NONE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS POINT OUT A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE DANGER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

26/03Z 14.7 N 33.6 W 35 KTS
26/15Z 15.4 N 35.7 W 40 KTS
27/03Z 16.4 N 38.9 W 50 KTS
27/15Z 17.1 N 42.1 W 60 KTS
28/03Z 17.9 N 45.4 W 70 KTS
29/03Z 19.0 N 52.0 W 80 KTS
30/03Z 20.5 N 57.5 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 22.5 N 62.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON