03Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:16 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 10, 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN, FL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT (0300Z)...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 N 84.2 W OR 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA, FL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. MOVEMENT IS TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

THE AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY WENT TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND WITH BARELY ENOUGH THUNDERSTORM TO CLASSIFY THIS AS A DEPRESSION. SINCE THEN...THE DEPRESSION IS ALMOST VOID OF HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS. DVORAK ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THIS IS STILL A 30 KT DEPRESSION. WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS IN 30 TO 31C WATERS...EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM FOR HAVING THE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS NEEDED TO BECOME A STRONGER SYSTEM. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...BOTH MY AND NHCs INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL IN THINKING THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SLOWLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.

IT HAS BEEN AT TIMES DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT GOING OFF MICROWAVE SATELLITES...INITIAL MOTION IS 320/4. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL CAUSE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH MOST OF ITS LIFE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH...MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND EAST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK WITH HAVE IT MAKING A LOUISIANA LANDFALL IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/03Z 26.2 N 84.2 W 30 KTS
11/15Z 27.1 N 85.5 W 30 KTS
12/03Z 28.3 N 87.0 W 35 KTS
12/15Z 29.3 N 88.3 W 40 KTS
13/03Z 30.2 N 89.0 W 35 KTS...INLAND
14/03Z 32.0 N 89.0 W 25 KTS...INLAND
15/03Z 33.5 N 87.5 W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING

JACKSON