15Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1 N 39.4W OR 1025 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB/29.35 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WHILE THE DEEPEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME...DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.5/3.5 AND THE MIMIC-IR SHOWING SATELLITE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...I HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 55 KTS. DANIELLE IS NOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THIS IS HER BEST OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN WHICH ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SHE WILL DO AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. DANIELLE ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS THOUGH MY INTENSITY FORECAST DO NOT SHOW THIS. SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THE 72 HOUR MARK AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP DANIELLE FROM FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEYOND THIS TIME...AND IN FACT COULD WEAKEN HER SLIGHTLY AS INDICATED IN MY FORECAST. I BRING DANIELLE TO A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SOME VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. DANIELLE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A FASTER SPEED THROUGH THE MID FORECAST RANGE. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...I/M NOT TOO FOND OF HOW FAR WEST THEY TAKE DANIELLE BEFORE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE I/M ALSO NOT SHOWING THIS IN MY FORECAST TRACK...I DO BELIEVE THAT AT THIS TIME...DANIELLE WILL NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN BEYOND 55 DEGREES. THAT IS BECAUSE A STRONG TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS DANIELLE AND I THINK THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SECOND...THERE WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS AND IN TURN SLOW DOWN DANIELLE. MY FORECAST TRACK IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND EAST OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION. MY FORECAST TRACK FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES IS ALSO EAST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/15Z 15.1 N 39.4 W 55 KTS
24/03Z 15.8 N 41.2 W 60 KTS
24/15Z 17.1 N 43.9 W 75 KTS
25/03Z 18.8 N 46.6 W 80 KTS
25/15Z 20.6 N 49.1 W 90 KTS
26/15Z 24.0 N 52.5 W 95 KTS
27/15Z 27.5 N 53.5 W 90 KTS
28/15Z 31.5 N 53.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON