03Z Tropical Update

COR FOR KNOTS IN FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY SECTION

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 22, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 N 35.9 W OR 770 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT XX MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB/29.53 IN.

WHILE DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...CONFLICTS WITH TIME HAS PREVENTED ME TO ISSUE A FORECAST UNTIL NOW. NOW THAT IS OUT OF THE WAY...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DANIELLE HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0/3.0 AND ADT AT 0145 IS SHOWING 3.4...BECAUSE OF THIS THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KTS. EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL HAVING SOME IMPACT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF DANIELLE...BUT SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DANIELLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHICH MY FORECAST SHOWS IN 36 HOURS. IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME...SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE STRENGTHENING CYCLE AT AROUND 85 KTS BUT IF THE SHEAR TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE...THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DANIELLE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11 KTS. DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DANIELLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP AND WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO SLOW IN MOTION. TWO TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND RIGHT NOW...IT IS NOT EXPECT THAT THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RECURVE DANIELLE BUT INSTEAD DANIELLE WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS AND A MOTION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL COMMENCE. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DANIELLE TO THE NORTH. SO FAR...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW DANIELLE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE A DANGER TO BERMUDA. OVERALL MY FORECAST SHOW DANIELLE MOVING ALONG THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENEVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/03Z 14.2 N 35.9 W 45 KTS
23/15Z 15.0 N 37.4 W 50 KTS
24/03Z 16.2 N 40.0 W 55 KTS
24/15Z 17.7 N 43.0 W 65 KTS
25/03Z 19.3 N 45.9 W 70 KTS
26/03Z 22.5 N 51.0 W 80 KTS
27/03Z 25.5 N 53.0 W 85 KTS
28/03Z 29.0 N 54.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON