03Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 26, 2010

RESIDENTS OF BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE POSTED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 22.4 N 54.1 W OR 940 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB/28.79 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND A EYE ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE. DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5/4.5 AND ADT OF 4.3 AROUND 00Z...BEST ESTIMATES THAT DANIELLE HAS INCREASED WINDS OF 85 KTS...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. DANIELLE HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING HURRICANE TO FORECAST FOR TO SAY THE LEAST. DANIELLE WILL MOVE INTO PRIMO ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. DANIELLE WILL THEN MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND THAT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS BY DAY 5.

DANIELLE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. DANIELLE AT TIMES ON SATELLITE HAVE BEEN MOVING ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION BUT THAT IS A TEMPORARY JOG. ALL THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE DANIELLE MOVING ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THAT/S WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE. NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE THE OUTLIER OF THE MODELS AND PULL DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE A LOT OF OTHER MODELS TAKE DANIELLE ON A NORTHERLY COURSE THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5. MY FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND PULL DANIELLE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH PULLING DANIELLE OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TOWARDS BERMUDA IN 4 DAYS...SO ALL RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE AS WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED BY THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

26/03Z 22.4 N 54.1 W 85 KTS
26/15Z 23.6 N 55.4 W 85 KTS
27/03Z 24.3 N 57.1 W 90 KTS
27/15Z 26.0 N 59.0 W 95 KTS
28/03Z 27.2 N 60.7 W 100 KTS
29/03Z 30.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/03Z 33.0 N 61.5 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 36.0 N 59.0 W 75 KTS

JACKSON