03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 N 69.9 W OR 910 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL APPEARS THAT HE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AN EYE IS ONCE AGAIN VISIBLE ON SATELLITE THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF SHEARING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF EARL. WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KTS. EARL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DESPITE THE SHEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS HE MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. AS EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START IN ABOUT 84 TO 96 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13 KTS. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN WOBBLES AS THE CASE WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE WHEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MY FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST TO WITHIN 60 MILES OF CAPE HATTERAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF EARL AND AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/03Z 23.0 N 69.9 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.5 N 71.3 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.8 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 29.4 N 74.6 W 115 KTS
03/03Z 32.3 N 74.9 W 110 KTS
04/03Z 37.5 N 70.5 W 95 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 62.0 W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 52.5 N 54.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 11A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5 N 69.1 W OR 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

A QUICK NOTE ON FIONA...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO NO FURTHER FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS SIGNS SHOW THAT FIONA WILL NOT DISSIPATE.

COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 11
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 N 68.8 W OR 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL/S EYEWALL HAVE BEGUN TO REFORM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WITH SHEAR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KTS. EARL COULD BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS EARL MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST 305/12 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STEER EARL IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY STEER EARL RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 60 TO 72 HOURS...COMING VERY CLOSE TO THE NC COAST. FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN UPDATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

BECAUSE OF THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND UNCERTAINTY OF EARL...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA COAST IF EARL/S TRACK CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/21Z 22.0 N 68.8 W 115 KTS
01/09Z 23.1 N 70.4 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 25.1 N 72.4 W 120 KTS
02/09Z 27.5 N 74.1 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.5 N 75.0 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.5 W 95 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 63.5 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:27 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 67.9 W OR 1070 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

EARL HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE OF 939 MB...WHICH MEANS THAT EARL IS VERY WELL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. I/M NOT FORECAST FOR EARL TO GET MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT HE IS NOT...IN FACT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. SO EARL WILL BEGIN HIS WEAKENING PROCESS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL IS REMAINING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARL SHOULD BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME TODAY AS THE LONGER EARL REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST...ALSO WILL BRING INCREASED AFFECTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO WATCHING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO SEE WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK STILL CALLS FOR EARL TO REMAIN OFF SHORE...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE STILL SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER WEST. FORECAST TRACK DO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...THEN IT/S AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MAY SEE HURRICANE WATCHES POSTED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 21.2 N 67.9 W 115 KTS
01/03Z 22.3 N 69.5 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.0 N 71.5 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.2 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 28.9 N 74.3 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 72.5 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 42.5 N 64.5 W 85 KTS
05/15Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Fiona

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.


AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 N 55.3 W OR 440 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

FIONA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION. THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORMS SOME...WINDS STILL REMAIN AT 35 KTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY IN SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH I HAVE INDICATED IN MY FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT AGAINST FIONA THAT COULD CAUSE HER TO DISSIPATE ALSO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIONA WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRICTLY DEPENDENT UPON THAT FIONA CAN SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RAPID 285/22 KTS. FIONA WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS SHE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST IS AN UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT FIONA WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SAME TROUGH THAT WILL PULL EARL OUT TO SEA...PULL FIONA OUT TO SEA AS WELL. BUT THE MODELS ARE VERY DIVERSE IN THE LONG TERM TRACK FROM FIONA...SO AREAS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BERMUDA AND EVEN THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 15.9 N 55.3 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 17.0 N 57.7 W 40 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.8 W 45 KTS
02/03Z 20.6 N 63.7 W 50 KTS
02/15Z 23.0 N 65.9 W 50 KTS
03/15Z 27.0 N 68.0 W 50 KTS
04/15Z 29.0 N 67.0 W 50 KTS
05/15Z 30.5 N 66.5 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Fiona

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:28 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0 N 50.8 W OR 745 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

FIONA IS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 2.0/2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. FIONA ACTUALLY HAVE SOME CHANCES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE RATHER LIMITED. FIONA WILL MOVE THROUGH WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR COULD BRING FIONA UP TO A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM. THEN FIONA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL AND FIONA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FIONA WILL NOT SURVIVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MY INTENSITY FORECAST HAD DECREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21 KTS. FIONA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS STEERED EARL. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECT DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN A MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS FIONA FOLLOWS THE RIDGE. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF FAIRLY DIVERSE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/03Z 15.0 N 50.8 W 35 KTS
31/15Z 15.7 N 53.4 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 16.9 N 56.8 W 35 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.2 W 40 KTS
02/03Z 20.7 N 63.1 W 45 KTS
03/03Z 25.5 N 67.0 W 45 KTS
04/03Z 27.5 N 67.5 W 40 KTS
05/03Z 28.5 N 68.5 W 40 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9 N 65.8 W OR 105 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.

IT SEEMS THAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT EARL HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO STOP STRENGTHENING SOME. MIMIC SHOWS WINDS OF 115 KTS AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THAT WILL HALT STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE. ALSO THERE IS SOME SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN EARL...IN FACT I STILL HAVE EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND FINALLY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS EARL WILL MOVE THROUGH A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.

EARLS INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL CONTINUES ON HIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES WITH EARL WHICH IS EXPECTED WHEN HURRICANES ARE THIS STRONG. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH I DID ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY BOOST EARL OUT TO SEA. HOW SOON WILL THIS HAPPEN AS EARL APPROACHES THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF EARL SO AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND STILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. I/M EXPECTING THAT POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/03Z 19.9 N 65.8 W 115 KTS
31/15Z 20.9 N 67.3 W 125 KTS
01/03Z 22.2 N 69.6 W 125 KTS
01/15Z 23.7 N 71.6 W 120 KTS
02/03Z 25.9 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.5 N 74.5 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 37.0 N 70.0 W 85 KTS
05/03Z 43.5 N 59.5 W 65 KTS

JACKSON

01Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST UPDATE 8B
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
9:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 9:00 PM EDT/0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7 N 65.5 W OR 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.

THE NEXT COMPLETE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

23Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 8A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
7:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

AT 7:00 PM EDT/2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 N 65.1 W OR 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY A COMPLETE UPDATE AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Fiona

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
6:17 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4 N 48.7 W OR 890 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

DUE TO THE DELAY TIME OF GETTING FORECAST TRACK COMPLETED...WILL ONLY SHOW THE FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY. A FULL DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 14.4 N 48.7 W 35 KTS
31/09Z 14.6 N 51.3 W 45 KTS
31/21Z 15.4 N 54.9 W 50 KTS
01/09Z 16.6 N 58.3 W 60 KTS
01/21Z 18.3 N 61.5 W 65 KTS
02/21Z 22.5 N 66.5 W 65 KTS
03/21Z 25.5 N 68.5 W 60 KTS
04/21Z 29.5 N 68.0 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 N 64.7 W OR 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECON PLANE LEFT...ADT NUMBERS ARE ABOVE 6.0...WHICH NOW MAKES THIS A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING AS EARL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IN MY FORECAST...BUT NHC PEAKED EARL AT 130 KTS. I HAVE NOT GONE ABOVE 120 KTS BECAUSE EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LESS ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND DURING THAT TIME EARL WILL LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF ITS STRENGTH. ALSO BEYOND 72 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13 KTS. EARL IS STILL MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...WHICH IS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EARL MORE AND MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND IS SLOWLY INCREASING THE THREAT OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWER AND WILL NOT REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WITH THE DELAY MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...EARL WILL NOT BEGIN A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TURN UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...AREAS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS MY FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE WEST AND I DO BELIEVE THAT TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

NOTE: THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PLOT IS NOT ON THE MAP DUE TO A CLOSE UP MAP OF THE SOUTHEAST THAT I/M USING AND THE MAP DO NOT GO ANY FURTHER NORTH THAT 40 N. THIS MAP WILL USED UNTIL THE THREAT HAS SUBSIDED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 19.3 N 64.7 W 115 KTS
31/09Z 20.1 N 66.3 W 120 KTS
31/21Z 21.3 N 68.4 W 120 KTS
01/09Z 22.6 N 70.3 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 24.5 N 72.2 W 110 KTS
02/21Z 30.0 N 74.5 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.0 W 90 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 59.5 W 70 KTS

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL SPECIAL FORECAST 7
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0 N 64.0 W OR 75 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND EARL COULD BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF EARL APPROACHING CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB/28.20 IN.

COMPLETE UPDATE COMING UP AT 5 PM EDT.


JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 13
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:11 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 39.3 N 53.0 W OR 510 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB/28.94 IN.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MAY BE IN THE BEGINNING PHRASES OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM DANIELLE IS GONE AND THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED. WITH THAT IN MIND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 70 KTS. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHE CONTINUES THE EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION 045/14 KTS. DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE AT THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH MONDAY WHEN DANIELLE WILL INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED AND GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES. FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING HER PHRASE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FORECAST ISSUED ON DANIELLE FROM THE TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER. FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...YOU CAN GO TO THE NHC FORECAST SITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 39.3 N 53.0 W 70 KTS
30/15Z 41.0 N 52.9 W 55 KTS
31/03Z 42.7 N 45.5 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
31/15Z 44.2 N 38.1 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
01/03Z 45.5 N 30.6 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9 N 61.1 W OR 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB/28.67 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 85 KTS ON THE SURFACE WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL HAVE AN OPEN 30 MILE EYE AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STILL IS LOWER THAN NHCS INTENSITY FORECAST WHERE THEIR FORECASTING EARL TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. AS EARL MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...EARL WILL RUN INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION OF EARL REMAINS 285/13 AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MOTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO MY FORECAST TRACK AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT HESITANT ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST I HAVE SHIFTED MY FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL EARL OUT TO SEA. THE LONG TERM FORECAST I DID ADJUST TO THE EAST AND IS ON LINE WITH NHCS FORECAST TRACK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND WHAT...IF ANY DIRECT AFFECTS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE EAST COAST...SO AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 17.9 N 61.1 W 85 KTS
30/15Z 18.7 N 62.6 W 90 KTS
31/03Z 20.0 N 64.6 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.3 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/03Z 22.7 N 68.4 W 105 KTS
02/03Z 27.5 N 71.5 W 105 KTS
03/03Z 33.5 N 72.0 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 40.5 N 65.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 5A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 60.3 W OR 100 MILES EAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CROSS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY. CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 972 MB/28.70 IN.

A COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropcial Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:28 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 38.0 N 54.5 W OR 605 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. DANIELLE IS RACING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 MPH AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB/28.85 IN.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WHILE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...WILL KEEP DANIELLE A 70 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW. ON SATELLITE DANIELLE/S CENTER HAVE BEEN EXPOSED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER AND WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION 025/22 KTS. DANIELLE WILL SLOW DOWN TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE WESTERLIES AND THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AND MOVING DANIELLE FURTHER EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS DANIELLE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA.

NOTE: BECAUSE THE MAPS I HAVE DO NOT GO NORTH OF 40W WILL NOT INCLUDE MAP FOR REST OF DANIELLE/S LIFE...WILL JUST USE SATELLITE PICTURE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/21Z 38.0 N 54.5 W 70 KTS
30/09Z 39.8 N 52.5 W 60 KTS
30/21Z 41.7 N 48.5 W 50 KTS
31/09Z 43.4 N 40.6 W 35 KTS
31/21Z 44.7 N 34.3 W 30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
01/21Z 48.5 N 24.0 W 20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 N 59.5 W OR 150 MILES EAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL IS WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB/28.88 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. THE SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND WITH VERY WARM SSTs...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH EARL WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...I HAVE TRIMMED DOWN THE PEAK INTENSITY A BIT TO 105 KTS IN 72 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE 115 KTS THAT NHC IS FORECASTING DUE IN PART THAT EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LEAST ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH TEMPORARILY WEAKEN HURRICANES. BEYOND DAY 4...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTs AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 KTS. EARL HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS EARL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...EARL WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 AND FORECAST MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL EARL TO THE NORTHEAST WITHOUT AFFECTING THE EAST COAST DIRECTLY...BUT AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHEAST WILL STILL HAVE INDIRECT AFFECTS. FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF NHCS FORECAST TRACK. AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WILL POSSIBLY BRING A MAJOR HURRICANE CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS...SO THOSE AREAS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/21Z 17.6 N 59.5 W 75 KTS
30/09Z 18.3 N 61.2 W 80 KTS
30/21Z 19.4 N 63.2 W 95 KTS
31/09Z 20.6 N 65.0 W 100 KTS
31/21Z 22.0 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/21Z 26.0 N 69.5 W 105 KTS
02/21Z 32.0 N 71.0 W 105 KTS
03/21Z 38.0 N 67.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:09 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER IS ISSUING FORECASTS ON HURRICANE DANIELLE...LOCATED 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND 85 MPH WINDS AND ON HURRICANE EARL...LOCATED 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA AND 75 MPH WINDS. COMPLETE DETAILS ON BOTH THESE SYSTEMS ARE IN THE PREVIOUS POSTS.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAD ITS THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM AT ANYTIME AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WAVE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOP IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 4A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:03 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED BY HURRICANE HUNTERS NEAR 17.4 N 58.9 W OR 190 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BY HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 978 MB/28.88 IN.

THE NEXT COMPLETE FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE AT 5 PM EDT.


JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 11
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:29 AM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 35.5 N 55.5 W OR 575 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND ARE NEAR 85 MPH AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND DANIELLE WILL BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB/28.82 IN.

DANIELLE IS BEING WEAKENED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 3.0/4.0...BUT HAVE KEPT DANIELLE AT A 75 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW. FORECAST IS FOR DANIELLE TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 035/23 KTS. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND SLOW A BIT BY MONDAY...BEFORE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DANIELLE WILL BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY THEN.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/15Z 35.5 N 55.5 W 75 KTS
30/03Z 37.7 N 53.8 W 70 KTS
30/15Z 40.1 N 50.9 W 60 KTS
31/03Z 42.1 N 46.6 W 50 KTS
31/15Z 43.4 N 40.9 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
01/15Z 48.0 N 30.5 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

HURRICANE WATCHES AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR...BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.2 N 58.4 W OR 225 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB/29.09 IN.

EARL HAVE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AT 1230Z...RECON FOUND THAT EARL WAS A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SHEAR IS DECREASING FROM EARL AND WITH WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 25 AND 27C...ALL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT EARL WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS WITH FEW MODELS BRINGING EARL TO CATEGORY 4 STATUS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS EARL AT 110 KTS...AND THIS SIDES CLOSELY TO NHCs FORECAST. AS DAYS 4 AND 5 APPROACHES...SOME SLIGHTLY INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EARL...BUT IT IS STILL FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE.

EARL/S INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15 KTS. EARL IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS WILL CAUSE EARL TO BEGIN THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE AND SLOW DOWN. FORECAST MODELS ARE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF EARL AND CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...WHEN A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE. BY DAY 5...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE WEST COULD BRING EARL VERY CLOSE TO A OUTER BANKS LANDFALL...SO AREAS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO THE DELMARVA IN PARTICULARLY NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/15Z 17.2 N 58.4 W 65 KTS
30/03Z 18.0 N 60.1 W 75 KTS
30/15Z 19.0 N 62.3 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 20.1 N 64.3 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.4 N 66.1 W 100 KTS
01/15Z 25.0 N 69.5 W 105 KTS
02/15Z 31.0 N 72.0 W 110 KTS
03/15Z 37.5 N 70.0 W 100 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 N 33.6 W OR 615 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH EARL. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.0/2.5 AND ADT AT 3.0. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. EARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT/S WHAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AND EARL WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DO NOT THINK THAT EARL WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN BY DAY 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/14. LIKE TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN ITS DEVELOPING STAGE...EARL IS LIKELY HAVING ITS CENTER RELOCATED A FEW TIMES. FORECAST TRACK AND THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NHCs FORECAST TRACK. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER EARL TO THE WEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN FOLLOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. NONE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS POINT OUT A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE DANGER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. ALL AREAS ALONG THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

26/03Z 14.7 N 33.6 W 35 KTS
26/15Z 15.4 N 35.7 W 40 KTS
27/03Z 16.4 N 38.9 W 50 KTS
27/15Z 17.1 N 42.1 W 60 KTS
28/03Z 17.9 N 45.4 W 70 KTS
29/03Z 19.0 N 52.0 W 80 KTS
30/03Z 20.5 N 57.5 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 22.5 N 62.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 26, 2010

RESIDENTS OF BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE...TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE POSTED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 22.4 N 54.1 W OR 940 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB/28.79 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND A EYE ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE. DESPITE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5/4.5 AND ADT OF 4.3 AROUND 00Z...BEST ESTIMATES THAT DANIELLE HAS INCREASED WINDS OF 85 KTS...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. DANIELLE HAS BEEN AN INTERESTING HURRICANE TO FORECAST FOR TO SAY THE LEAST. DANIELLE WILL MOVE INTO PRIMO ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY FRIDAY. DANIELLE WILL THEN MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND THAT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS BY DAY 5.

DANIELLE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15. DANIELLE AT TIMES ON SATELLITE HAVE BEEN MOVING ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION BUT THAT IS A TEMPORARY JOG. ALL THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE DANIELLE MOVING ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THAT/S WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE. NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE THE OUTLIER OF THE MODELS AND PULL DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE A LOT OF OTHER MODELS TAKE DANIELLE ON A NORTHERLY COURSE THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5. MY FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND PULL DANIELLE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH PULLING DANIELLE OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TOWARDS BERMUDA IN 4 DAYS...SO ALL RESIDENTS NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE AS WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE POSTED BY THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

26/03Z 22.4 N 54.1 W 85 KTS
26/15Z 23.6 N 55.4 W 85 KTS
27/03Z 24.3 N 57.1 W 90 KTS
27/15Z 26.0 N 59.0 W 95 KTS
28/03Z 27.2 N 60.7 W 100 KTS
29/03Z 30.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/03Z 33.0 N 61.5 W 85 KTS
31/03Z 36.0 N 59.0 W 75 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 53.1 W OR 685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE BEEN TRYING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TO GATHER MORE THUNDERSTORMS AND FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR THAT HAVE BEEN PLAUGING THIS SYSTEM THE PAST 36 HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES AS OF 1745Z WAS AT 4.5/4.5 WHILE THE ADT WAS AT 3.8. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS WHEN IT WILL ONCE AGAIN RELAX TO BELOW 10 KTS...GIVING DANIELLE ABOUT A 48 HOUR WINDOW TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE STRONG SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WEAKEN DANIELLE. THEREFORE...I HAVE INCREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY UP 5 KTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEFORE DANIELLE BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN 4 DAYS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NHCs.

INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 315/15. DANIELLE HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT IS BEGINNING TO FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. FORECAST MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN DIVERGE GREATLY AS TO WHERE DANIELLE WILL GO. THIS LARGE DIVERGENCE IN MODELS SUGGEST A LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST TRACK OF DANIELLE. NOGAPS IS STILL THE OUTLIER AS THAT MODEL WANT TO BRING DANIELLE VERY CLOSE TO THE DELMARVA WITHING 180 HOURS (OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD)...WHILE THE LBAR RECURVES DANIELLE COMPLETELY TO THE NORTHEAST. I/M LEANING (WITH LOW CONFIDENCE MIGHT I ADD) THAT DANIELLE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEGIN THE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...SO RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE TRACK OF DANIELLE AS WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/21Z 21.2 N 53.1 W 75 KTS
26/09Z 22.0 N 54.7 W 75 KTS
26/21Z 23.4 N 56.6 W 85 KTS
27/09Z 24.5 N 58.2 W 85 KTS
27/21Z 26.0 N 60.0 W 90 KTS
28/21Z 29.0 N 63.0 W 95 KTS
29/21Z 32.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/21Z 35.5 N 60.5 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4 N 32.2 W OR 520 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

EARL HAVE SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.5/2.5 AND ADT AT 2.5...EARL HAS BEEN BORN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS. EARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IS LIKELY THAT EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS SHEAR WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. I DO NOT HOWEVER AT THIS TIME EXPECT EARL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST IN ABOUT 84 HOURS...SHEAR FROM THE NORTH COULD IMPACT EARL AND COULD SLOW DOWN OR EVEN STOP THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS...SO BROUGHT DOWN THE PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 80 KTS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KTS. EARL IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS STEERING DANIELLE. FORECAST FOR EARL IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE LAST FORECAST UPDATE AS EARL IN TIME WILL FOLLOW THE SAME WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...EARL SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. WHAT EFFECT IF ANY WILL EARL HAVE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SEVERAL COMPUTER MODELS DO BRING EARL CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST IN ABOUT 7 TO 10 DAYS IN TIME FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...SO ALL AREAS FROM FLORIDA TO VIRGINIA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/21Z 14.4 N 32.2 W 35 KTS
26/09Z 15.0 N 34.3 W 40 KTS
26/21Z 15.9 N 37.3 W 50 KTS
27/09Z 16.7 N 40.4 W 60 KTS
27/21Z 17.4 N 43.6 W 70 KTS
28/21Z 18.5 N 50.0 W 75 KTS
29/21Z 19.0 N 55.5 W 75 KTS
30/21Z 21.0 N 60.0 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropcial Update #2

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 19.6 N 52.3 W OR 710 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE IS STILL STRUGGLING A BIT WITH THE WESTERLY SHEAR...DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/4.0 WHICH SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE DANIELLE AT 75 KTS...WHICH MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RELAX...UNTIL THEN EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF WEAKENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...DANIELLE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND MAY GO THROUGH ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE DANIELLE MOVES INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHWEST SHEAR BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KTS WHICH WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS OF DANIELLE.

DANIELLE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15 KTS. FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A WEAKENING RIDGE AND A TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED. FORECAST MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND THE SPREAD INCREASE AS A SECOND TROUGH MOVE OFF THE U.S. TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS (NAVY) MODEL IS LIKELY THE OUTLIER WHICH BRING DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BRING DANIELLE OFF THE EAST COAST IN 5 TO 6 DAYS. WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY...I THINK THAT DANIELLE WILL FEEL ENOUGH OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY 5 PERIOD. I STILL HAVE DANIELLE FORECAST TO COME CLOSE ENOUGH BERMUDA...THAT AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BEEN NEEDED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/15Z 19.6 N 52.3 W 75 KTS
26/03Z 20.7 N 53.8 W 75 KTS
26/15Z 22.0 N 55.7 W 80 KTS
27/03Z 23.1 N 57.3 W 80 KTS
27/15Z 24.3 N 58.7 W 85 KTS
28/15Z 27.5 N 61.5 W 90 KTS
29/15Z 30.5 N 63.0 W 90 KTS
30/15Z 32.5 N 62.5 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update #1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 25, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 IS LOCATED NEAR 14.3 N 30.8 W OR 430 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST A FEW DAYS AGO QUICKLY GOT ORGANIZED AND WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 2.0/2.0 AND A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND DECENT OUTFLOW...THIS HAS NOW BECOME DEPRESSION AND CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS DEPRESSION IS UNDER AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATER TODAY. VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL LIKELY MAKE THIS DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND COULD SLOW DOWN THE STRENGTHENING OF THIS DEPRESSION...BUT FOR NOW HAVE IT CAPPED AT A CATEGORY 2 85 KTS HURRICANE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH NHCs FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHERE LIKE DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE AND TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLUSTERED IN THE MOTION OF TD 7 AND MY FORECAST IS ALONG THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK. RIGHT NOW...EXPECTING TD 7 TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/15Z 14.3 N 30.8 W 30 KTS
26/03Z 14.9 N 33.4 W 35 KTS
26/15Z 15.6 N 36.5 W 40 KTS
27/03Z 16.5 N 39.5 W 50 KTS
27/15Z 17.1 N 42.6 W 60 KTS
28/15Z 18.0 N 48.5 W 75 KTS
29/15Z 19.0 N 54.0 W 80 KTS
30/15Z 21.0 N 58.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 7
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

RESIDENTS IN BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED 18.2 N 49.8 W OR 795 MILES EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB/29.23 IN.

DANIELLE IS TRYING TO GET HER ACT TOGETHER. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE APPEARED AND THERE IS LESS DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN THE SYSTEM AND THOUGH IT IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR...DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/4.0 AND ADT NUMBERS OF 3.8...DANIELLE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH 65 KTS. DANIELLE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN DANIELLE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS BEFORE SOUTHWEST SHEAR INCREASE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/16. DANIELLE IS MOVING ALONG THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WITH THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE...DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE WEAKER THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY SHOWED AND THIS COULD DELAY THE TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND AGAIN CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

25/03Z 18.2 N 49.8 W 65 KTS
25/15Z 19.3 N 51.5 W 65 KTS
26/03Z 20.8 N 53.7 W 65 KTS
26/15Z 21.8 N 55.3 W 65 KTS
27/03Z 23.6 N 57.3 W 70 KTS
28/03Z 26.5 N 60.5 W 85 KTS
29/03Z 30.0 N 62.5 W 95 KTS
30/03Z 31.5 N 63.0 W 80 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

RESIDENTS OF BERMUDA NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 N 48.2 W OR 895 MILES EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...LITTLE CHANCE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB/29.32 IN.

DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO FEEL THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS CONTINUING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN FURTHER TO 3.0/4.0 AND ADT NUMBERS DOWN TO 3.6 ALL INDICATING THAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DOWN FURTHER TO 60 KTS. I/M NOT EXPECTING DANIELLE TO WEAKEN MUCH MORE. AFTER ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN RELAX AND DANIELLE WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND COULD BE AS STRONG AS DANIELLE WAS JUST 12 HOURS AGO.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16 KTS. DANIELLE/S FORECAST TRACK HAVE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS DANIELLE IS WEAKENING AND WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE WEST. I AM STILL EXPECTING THE RIDGE THAT HAVE BEEN STEERING TO WEAKEN AND THAT WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY STEER DANIELLE TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH DANIELLE/S TRACK MOVING FURTHER TO THE WEST WILL BRING AN INCREASED DANGER TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...SO FOLKS ON THAT ISLAND CHAIN WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/21Z 17.5 N 48.2 W 60 KTS
25/09Z 18.3 N 52.0 W 60 KTS
25/21Z 19.7 N 52.2 W 60 KTS
26/03Z 21.0 N 54.4 W 60 KTS
26/21Z 22.3 N 56.1 W 65 KTS
27/21Z 25.5 N 59.0 W 75 KTS
28/21Z 29.5 N 61.0 W 85 KTS
29/21Z 33.0 N 62.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 24, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6 N 46.5 W OR 985 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...WHILE DANIELLE HAVE WEAKEN SOME...FORECAST DOES CALL FOR DANIELLE TO RESTRENGTHEN WITHIN 12 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB/29.09 IN.

DANIELLE/S RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE HAVE COME TO A SCREECHING HALT. WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...SOUTHWEST SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR HAVE TAKEN OVER THE STORM SOMEWHAT...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES WENT DOWN TO 4.0/4.5 AND THE ADT AT 4.2...WITH THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70 KTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL LAST ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS SO HOW MUCH FURTHER DANIELLE WILL WEAKEN IS UNKNOWN...BUT I AM STILL FORECASTING FOR STRENGTHENING...NOW BECAUSE OF DANIELLE WEAKENING...I HAVE ADJUSTED MY FORECAST TO KEEP DANIELLE FROM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH NHCs FORECAST INTENSITY AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION 290/17. FORECAST TRACK THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PAST PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING DANIELLE TO FOLLOW THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AGAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/15Z 16.6 N 46.5 W 70 KTS
25/03Z 17.3 N 48.1 W 80 KTS
25/15Z 18.7 N 50.5 W 80 KTS
26/03Z 20.1 N 52.5 W 80 KTS
26/15Z 21.6 N 54.1 W 85 KTS
27/15Z 25.0 N 56.5 W 85 KTS
28/15Z 28.0 N 59.0 W 95 KTS
29/15Z 32.0 N 60.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 N 43.2 W OR 1205 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB/29.00 IN.

DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS DANIELLE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 13 MBS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ADT NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.3 AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0/4.0 BUT I BELIEVE THAT DANIELLE MAY BE STRONGER WITH AN EYE CLEARLY DEFINED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE. BASED ON THAT...I HAVE INCREASED DANIELLE TO 75 KTS. DANIELLE IS UNDER AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HER STRENGTH AND I HAVE INCREASED THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP ANOTHER 5 KTS FROM THE LAST FORECAST. I EXPECT THAT DANIELLE WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PEAK STRENGTH TO 105 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT IF TRENDS CONTINUE...THAT DANIELLE COULD EASILY BE STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST I HAVE. DANIELLE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN TO BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5 AS SOUTHWEST SHEAR WILL EFFECT THE STORM.

INITIAL MOTION 285/17. DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY AROUND 36 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS IS STILL BEING INDICATED BY THE FORECAST MODELS...NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL DANIELLE MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. MY NEW FORECAST TRACK CONTINUE DANIELLE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND HAVE SINCE BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST BUT STILL REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND REMAINS CLOSE TO NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

24/03Z 15.6 N 43.2 W 75 KTS
24/15Z 16.6 N 44.9 W 90 KTS
25/03Z 18.2 N 47.3 W 100 KTS
25/15Z 20.0 N 49.8 W 105 KTS
26/03Z 22.0 N 52.0 W 105 KTS
27/03Z 27.5 N 55.0 W 105 KTS
28/03Z 28.5 N 57.5 W 100 KTS
29/03Z 32.0 N 58.5 W 95 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

COR TO INPUT MISSING INFORMATION
HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.4 N 41.5 W OR 1320 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB/29.15 IN.

DANIELLE HAS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH BANDING FEATURES IMPROVING. 1745Z DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 4.0/4.0 AND THE ADT NUMBERS HAVE CLIMBED TO 4.2 WHICH EQUALS TO 72 KTS. WITH ALL OF THAT IN MIND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 65 KTS...WHICH MAKES DANIELLE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2010 SEASON. DANIELLE MAY BE GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE DUE TO THE WARM SSTs AND SHEAR NOW LESS THAN 10 KTS. I HAVE UPPED THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO MAKE DANIELLE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER THAN THE FORECAST INDICATES. SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 72 HOURS AND SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF AS THE FORECAST INDICATES.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15 KTS. DANIELLE IS STILL BEING STEERED BY THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MY UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE WITH NHCs AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/21Z 15.4 N 41.5 W 65 KTS
24/09Z 16.0 N 43.2 W 80 KTS
24/21Z 17.4 N 45.8 W 90 KTS
25/09Z 19.1 N 48.3 W 100 KTS
25/21Z 21.1 N 50.6 W 100 KTS
26/21Z 24.5 N 54.0 W 100 KTS
27/21Z 28.0 N 56.0 W 100 KTS
28/21Z 32.0 N 57.5 W 100 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 15.1 N 39.4W OR 1025 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB/29.35 IN.

DANIELLE HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WHILE THE DEEPEST THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SOME...DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.5/3.5 AND THE MIMIC-IR SHOWING SATELLITE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS...I HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 55 KTS. DANIELLE IS NOW IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE SHEAR IS LESS THAN 10 KTS AND THIS IS HER BEST OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN WHICH ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST SHE WILL DO AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. DANIELLE ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS THOUGH MY INTENSITY FORECAST DO NOT SHOW THIS. SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THE 72 HOUR MARK AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP DANIELLE FROM FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEYOND THIS TIME...AND IN FACT COULD WEAKEN HER SLIGHTLY AS INDICATED IN MY FORECAST. I BRING DANIELLE TO A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY SOME VERY SLIGHT WEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14. DANIELLE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A FASTER SPEED THROUGH THE MID FORECAST RANGE. WHILE THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...I/M NOT TOO FOND OF HOW FAR WEST THEY TAKE DANIELLE BEFORE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE I/M ALSO NOT SHOWING THIS IN MY FORECAST TRACK...I DO BELIEVE THAT AT THIS TIME...DANIELLE WILL NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN BEYOND 55 DEGREES. THAT IS BECAUSE A STRONG TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST WILL BE ADVANCING TOWARDS DANIELLE AND I THINK THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE DANIELLE FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. SECOND...THERE WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS AND IN TURN SLOW DOWN DANIELLE. MY FORECAST TRACK IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND EAST OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE GFS SOLUTION. MY FORECAST TRACK FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES IS ALSO EAST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/15Z 15.1 N 39.4 W 55 KTS
24/03Z 15.8 N 41.2 W 60 KTS
24/15Z 17.1 N 43.9 W 75 KTS
25/03Z 18.8 N 46.6 W 80 KTS
25/15Z 20.6 N 49.1 W 90 KTS
26/15Z 24.0 N 52.5 W 95 KTS
27/15Z 27.5 N 53.5 W 90 KTS
28/15Z 31.5 N 53.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

14Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
9:54 AM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 23, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER IS CURRENTLY ISSUING FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE...LOCATED 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 60 MPH WINDS.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.


JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

COR FOR KNOTS IN FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY SECTION

TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 22, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2 N 35.9 W OR 770 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND DANIELLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. DANIELLE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT XX MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB/29.53 IN.

WHILE DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY...CONFLICTS WITH TIME HAS PREVENTED ME TO ISSUE A FORECAST UNTIL NOW. NOW THAT IS OUT OF THE WAY...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DANIELLE HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0/3.0 AND ADT AT 0145 IS SHOWING 3.4...BECAUSE OF THIS THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KTS. EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL HAVING SOME IMPACT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF DANIELLE...BUT SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DANIELLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF INCREASING IN STRENGTH AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHICH MY FORECAST SHOWS IN 36 HOURS. IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME...SOUTHWEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE STRENGTHENING CYCLE AT AROUND 85 KTS BUT IF THE SHEAR TAKE LONGER TO INCREASE...THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DANIELLE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11 KTS. DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DANIELLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP AND WILL CAUSE DANIELLE TO SLOW IN MOTION. TWO TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST...AND RIGHT NOW...IT IS NOT EXPECT THAT THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RECURVE DANIELLE BUT INSTEAD DANIELLE WILL FOLLOW THE WEAKNESS AND A MOTION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL COMMENCE. THE SECOND TROUGH MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL DANIELLE TO THE NORTH. SO FAR...NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW DANIELLE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE A DANGER TO BERMUDA. OVERALL MY FORECAST SHOW DANIELLE MOVING ALONG THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENEVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

23/03Z 14.2 N 35.9 W 45 KTS
23/15Z 15.0 N 37.4 W 50 KTS
24/03Z 16.2 N 40.0 W 55 KTS
24/15Z 17.7 N 43.0 W 65 KTS
25/03Z 19.3 N 45.9 W 70 KTS
26/03Z 22.5 N 51.0 W 80 KTS
27/03Z 25.5 N 53.0 W 85 KTS
28/03Z 29.0 N 54.0 W 85 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION #5 FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:04 AM EDT WEDNESDAY AUGUST 11, 2010

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FL TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM (1500Z)...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 IS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 86.8 W OR 165 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH AND SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOVEMENT IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB/29.77 IN.

DEEP BREATH...THIS DEPRESSION IS A LARGE...DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR. IT NOW APPEARS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP...BUT NOT MUCH AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DVORAK AND ADT ARE ESTIMATING THAT WINDS ARE ONLY 25 KTS...AND WILL USE THIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD SUGGEST SOME VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST MODELS FOR THAT MATTER DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THIS DEPRESSION CAN REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I WILL HOLD ON FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE FORECAST THAT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING QUICKLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HEAVY RAIN COULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY WEAKENS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 96 TO 120 HOURS.

DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATING FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL NEAR BURAS LA WITHIN 24 TO 30 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SLOW DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE INTO THAT AREA OF WEAKNESS. THE DEPRESSION WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE DISSIPATING. FORECAST TRACK IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SIMILAR TO NHCs FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS WHERE MY FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF NHCs.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/15Z 27.8 N 86.8 W 25 KTS
12/03Z 28.7 N 88.0 W 30 KTS
12/15Z 29.6 N 89.4 W 35 KTS
13/03Z 30.6 N 90.1 W 20 KTS...INLAND
13/15Z 31.3 N 90.3 W 20 KTS...INLAND
14/15Z 32.5 N 90.0 W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
15/15Z 33.5 N 88.0 W 20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING

JACKSON