03Z Tropical Update-Igor

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 5
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:09 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6 N 47.8 W OR 1005 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 935 MB/27.61 IN.

IGOR IS NOW THE STRONGEST HURRICANE ACCORDING TO WIND SPEED IN SEVERAL YEARS. IGOR CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 6.5/6.5 AND ADT OF 6.6 THEREFORE IGOR HAS INCREASED FURTHER TO 130 KTS. IGOR IS CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE STRENGTH. I/M FORECASTING FOR IGOR TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS THEN IGOR WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IGOR WILL GO THROUGH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...BUT IGOR WILL REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. FORECASTING THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IGOR WILL FOLLOW THE RIDGE AND IGOR WILL MOVE TO THE WEST AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY WILL TAKE IGOR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

13/03Z 17.6 N 47.8 W 130 KTS
13/15Z 18.0 N 49.4 W 140 KTS
14/03Z 18.5 N 51.3 W 135 KTS
14/15Z 19.2 N 53.0 W 135 KTS
15/03Z 20.1 N 54.5 W 130 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 57.5 W 125 KTS
17/03Z 24.5 N 61.0 W 115 KTS
18/03Z 27.0 N 64.0 W 105 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Julia

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED 13.5 N 23.5 W OR 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. JULIA WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB/29.65 IN.

JULIA IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND 35 KTS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING JULIA WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL GIVE JULIA A CHANCE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND JULIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND JULIA WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10 KTS. JULIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEER BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND MY FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

13/03Z 13.5 N 23.5 W 35 KTS
13/15Z 14.4 N 25.2 W 45 KTS
14/03Z 15.8 N 27.5 W 55 KTS
14/15Z 17.4 N 29.7 W 65 KTS
15/03Z 19.2 N 31.6 W 70 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 35.5 W 75 KTS
17/03Z 25.5 N 38.5 W 75 KTS
18/03Z 28.5 N 43.5 W 65 KTS

JACKSON

19Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL FORECAST 4
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:48 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 2:30 PM EDT/1830Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 46.1 W OR 1120 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. IGOR IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGHTENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR MONDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB/28.05 IN.

THIS A SPECIAL UPDATE TO INCREASE THE WINDS OF EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IGOR...NOW WITH WINDS OF 115 KTS. CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND IGOR COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.


JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-TD 12

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:37 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7 N 21.4 W OR 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECASTS HAVE BEGUN ON THE 12TH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. SHEAR IS AROUND 10 KTS AND SHOULD LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS WHEN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

INITIAL MOTION 275/12 KTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING THE DEPRESSION WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS AND MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST TRACK IS NORTHEAST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12/15Z 12.7 N 21.4 W 30 KTS
13/03Z 13.3 N 23.1 W 40 KTS
13/15Z 14.5 N 25.5 W 50 KTS
14/03Z 16.0 N 27.8 W 60 KTS
14/15Z 17.6 N 29.8 W 65 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 33.0 W 75 KTS
16/15Z 25.5 N 36.5 W 70 KTS
17/15Z 28.5 N 40.0 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Igor

HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:10 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 45.7 W OR 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...THE GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. IGOR IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB/28.64 IN.

IGOR IS NOW GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE. ADT NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 5.5 WITH OTHER NUMBERS AROUND 4.5/4.5. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KTS. WITH VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR BELOW 10 KTS...IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IGOR COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS BEFORE IGOR GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT WILL REMAIN A MAJOR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE IGOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP IGOR AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NOW WHETHER IGOR WILL HAVE AN AFFECTS ON THE UNITED STATES OR BERMUDA REMAINS TO BE SEEN...LOOKING AT THE LONGER TERM MODELS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IGOR OUT TO SEA. FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

12/15Z 17.7 N 45.7 W 90 KTS
13/03Z 18.3 N 47.3 W 95 KTS
13/15Z 18.9 N 49.6 W 105 KTS
14/03Z 19.5 N 51.8 W 115 KTS
14/15Z 20.0 N 53.8 W 125 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 57.0 W 130 KTS
16/15Z 24.0 N 59.5 W 130 KTS
17/15Z 27.0 N 62.5 W 120 KTS

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4 N 39.5W OR 1470 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE OF FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...AND IGOR STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB/29.38 IN.

DESPITE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN IGOR...AN EYE FEATURE IS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND WHILE WE COULD TECHNICALLY CALL IGOR A HURRICANE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASE SOMEWHAT...SO WILL KEEP IGOR A 60 KT STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING IGOR AND THIS WILL DECREASE AS THE DAY GO ON AND ALL MODELS POINT TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO THE POINT THAT I HAVE IGOR AS A LARGE...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 4 DAYS. NHCS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN MINE...AND I THINK IT WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4 STORM WITHIN 4 DAYS BECAUSE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND IGOR WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WATERS OF AT LEAST 28 TO 29 C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IGOR COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT I/M FORECASTING ESPECIALLY IF IGOR GOES THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

INITIAL IS A BIT SLOWER...275/17 KTS. FORECAST TRACK WITH IGOR WILL FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER TOWARDS DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE TROUGH COULD SLOW DOWN IGOR TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AND COULD ACTUALLY MOVE MORE ERRATIC THAN WHAT I/M SHOWING...BUT OVER A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NHCS FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO MY FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

11/15Z 17.4 N 39.5 W 60 KTS
12/03Z 17.8 N 41.7 W 65 KTS
12/15Z 18.3 N 44.7 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 18.9 N 47.6 W 85 KTS
13/15Z 19.1 N 50.2 W 90 KTS
14/15Z 19.0 N 54.5 W 110 KTS
15/15Z 19.5 N 56.5 W 115 KTS
16/15Z 22.0 N 58.0 W 115 KTS

JACKSON

14Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
10:08 AM EDT SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 11, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER ARE ISSUING FORECASTS ON TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED 915 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 70 MPH WINDS.

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST.

STRONG WAVE JUST READY TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND A DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE MOVING TO THE WEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 N 24.6 W OR 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB/29.68 IN.

IGOR IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY AT 1.5/1.5 WHICH IS ONLY AT 25 KTS WHILE ADT NUMBERS ARE AT 3.0 OR 45 KTS...SO COMPROMISED AND MAINTAINED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KTS. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR AND WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS OF SHEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO NHCs.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KTS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IGOR CONTINUES TO FEEL THE LOW TO ITS NORTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...IGOR MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THIS WILL CAUSE IGOR TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AGAIN. FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

09/03Z 13.8 N 24.6 W 40 KTS
09/15Z 14.3 N 25.9 W 45 KTS
10/03Z 15.1 N 28.0 W 50 KTS
10/15Z 16.2 N 30.6 W 55 KTS
11/03Z 17.3 N 33.5 W 65 KTS
12/03Z 19.0 N 39.5 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 20.0 N 45.0 W 85 KTS
14/03Z 21.0 N 49.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

17Z Tropical Outlook

TROPICAL OUTLOOK
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
12:43 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER ARE ISSUING FORECAST FOR RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM IGOR...LOCATED 95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 40 MPH WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 18
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8 N 74.4 W OR 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB/28.08 IN.

EARL IS STILL ON HIS WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WERE MEASURED AT 124 MPH...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE NO HIGHER THAN 90 KTS SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMPLE...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WITHIN 36 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 015/16 KTS. EARL AT TIMES HAVE BEEN WOBBLING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT TIMES BUT OVERALL IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. FORECAST TRACK IS FOR EARL TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS COURSE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.

THOUGH EARL IS WEAKENING...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING SO EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA AS WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NOVA SCOTIA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

03/03Z 33.8 N 74.4 W 90 KTS
03/15Z 35.3 N 73.4 W 80 KTS
04/03Z 37.9 N 70.3 W 75 KTS
04/15Z 41.1 N 66.3 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/03Z 45.3 N 61.6 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z DISSIPATED

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 17A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0 N 74.7 W OR 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING NORTH AT 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.


JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 17
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5 N 75.2 W OR 185 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER RATE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL COME NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB/27.96 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE EYE IS NOW FILLED IN AND WINDS ARE NOW DOWN TO 100 KTS. EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HE HEADS TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST POINTS THIS OUT.

INITIAL IS DUE NORTH AT 16 KTS. EARL HAVE MADE THE DUE NORTH TURN. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT BE UNTIL EARL BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND THINKING THAT THE NORTHEAST TURN WILL HAPPEN IN 10 TO 12 HOURS COMING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THE OUTER BANKS BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE HURRICANE CENTER AS EARL IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/21Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 100 KTS
03/09Z 34.0 N 74.7 W 100 KTS
03/21Z 36.4 N 72.5 W 95 KTS
04/09Z 39.2 N 68.8 W 80 KTS
04/21Z 43.1 N 64.4 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 55.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 16A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:05 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE.
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7 N 75.2 W OR 245 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB/27.85 IN.

COMPLETE DETAILS AT 5 PM EDT.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 16
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:13 AM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9 N 74.8 W OR 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 18 MPH...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. EARL REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...AND EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

EARL EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND NOW IS STARTING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE AT 120 KTS. FORECAST IS FOR EARL TO AT FIRST SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT AS EARL MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR...EARL WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST SHOWS THIS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 355/16 KTS. EARL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE MORE AND MORE TO THE NORTH. THE KEY LONGITUDE IS 75W. AS LONG AS EARL DO NOT CROSS MUCH PAST 75W...THE CORE OF EARL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF CAPE COD MAY SEE A DIRECT HIT FROM EARL BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH PROMPTED HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO UP. ALL AREA ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
02/15Z 30.9 N 74.8 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.8 N 75.0 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 33.9 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 38.4 N 70.9 W 95 KTS
04/15Z 42.0 N 66.5 W 75 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 50.5 N 57.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 15
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 73.8 W OR 520 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING NEAR OF OVER THE OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

NOAA RECON FLIGHT DURING THE INVESTIGATION OF EARL FOUND A WIND SPEED OF 137 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 120 KTS AT THE SURFACE AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON ALL QUADS...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. I/M NOT FORECASTING ANYMORE STRENGTHENING WITH EARL...AND WHILE EARL DO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ONCE EARL MOVES NORTH OF THE DELMARVA...WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND EARL WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION DESPITE SOME WOBBLES TO THE NORTH IS 330/16 KTS. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WORRY ME AS A FORECASTER CURRENTLY IS THAT EARL IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EARL OUT TO SEA. WITH THAT IN MIND...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EARL/S TURN TO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE DELAYED BY 10 TO 20 MILES AND IT MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS. WHILE THAT SCENARIO WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL BE KEPT IN CONSIDERATION FOR TOMORROW/S VERY IMPORTANT FORECASTS. MY OVERALL FORECAST TRACK IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD NUDGE BY 10 OR SO MILES. EVEN THEN...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EYE OF EARL...THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT FOR A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/03Z 27.8 N 73.8 W 120 KTS
02/15Z 29.7 N 74.9 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 74.1 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 38.0 N 70.0 W 90 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 61.0 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 53.5 N 50.5 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL


JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 14A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2 N 73.5 W OR 565 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

COMPLETE FORECAST UPDATE AT 11 PM EDT.


JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 14
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
6:16 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3 N 73.3 W OR 630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

DUE TO THE LATENESS OF THIS FORECAST...THE DISCUSSION SECTION WILL BE SKIPPED AND UPDATED AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/21Z 26.3 N 73.3 W 115 KTS
02/09Z 28.0 N 74.5 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.7 N 75.6 W 110 KTS
03/09Z 33.2 N 75.3 W 105 KTS
03/21Z 36.1 N 73.0 W 100 KTS
04/21Z 43.5 N 63.0 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 51.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 13A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2 N 72.7 W OR 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE STORM NOW SUGGEST THAT EARL MAY BE STRENGTHENING AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

ALSO OF NOTE IN THE TROPICS...TROPICAL STORM FIONA WITH 60 MPH WINDS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 N 62.2 W AND A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4 N 35.8 W AND 35 MPH WINDS. BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL REMAIN ON EARL UNTIL THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES SUBSIDE.

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 13
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:14 AM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN SALVADOR ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE FROM NEW JERSEY TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z THE EYE OF HURRICANE IS LOCATED 25.2 N 72.1 W OR 725 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH. EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON IS 943 MB/27.85 IN.

EARL...DESPITE A WELL DEFINED EYE AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST QUAD...EARL HAS WEAKEN A BIT AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS DOWN TO 110 KTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS THEN AS EARL MOVES FURTHER TO THE NORTH...EARL WILL MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.

INITIAL MOTION 320/15 KTS. EARL IS CONTINUING ON A NORTHWEST TREK ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS THEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AS HE FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH IN THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND THIS TROUGH WILL KICK EARL TO THE NORTHEAST AND OUT THE SEA. WHEN THE TROUGH KICKS IN AND PULL EARL TO THE NORTHEAST IS CRITICAL AS TO RATHER EARL BRUSHES WITH NORTH CAROLINA OR MAKE A LANDFALL. MY FORECAST TRACK IS UPDATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WILL BRING THE CORE OF EARL INLAND.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/15Z 25.2 N 72.1 W 110 KTS
02/03Z 26.7 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
02/15Z 29.8 N 74.8 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.7 N 75.1 W 110 KTS
03/15Z 34.4 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 41.0 N 65.5 W 80 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 49.5 N 55.5 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0 N 69.9 W OR 910 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL APPEARS THAT HE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AN EYE IS ONCE AGAIN VISIBLE ON SATELLITE THOUGH THERE IS A BIT OF SHEARING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF EARL. WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KTS. EARL WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DESPITE THE SHEAR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS HE MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. AS EARL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START IN ABOUT 84 TO 96 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13 KTS. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN WOBBLES AS THE CASE WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWEST TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST. THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH WILL DETERMINE WHEN EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MY FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST TO WITHIN 60 MILES OF CAPE HATTERAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF EARL AND AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/03Z 23.0 N 69.9 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.5 N 71.3 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.8 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 29.4 N 74.6 W 115 KTS
03/03Z 32.3 N 74.9 W 110 KTS
04/03Z 37.5 N 70.5 W 95 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 62.0 W 60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 52.5 N 54.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 11A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5 N 69.1 W OR 965 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

A QUICK NOTE ON FIONA...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO NO FURTHER FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED UNLESS SIGNS SHOW THAT FIONA WILL NOT DISSIPATE.

COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 11
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 22.0 N 68.8 W OR 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND BEGIN TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB/27.76 IN.

EARL/S EYEWALL HAVE BEGUN TO REFORM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT WITH SHEAR ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KTS. EARL COULD BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE STEADILY WEAKENING AS EARL MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL BY 96 HOURS SHOULD BEGIN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EARL IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST 305/12 KTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STEER EARL IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY STEER EARL RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 60 TO 72 HOURS...COMING VERY CLOSE TO THE NC COAST. FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN UPDATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

BECAUSE OF THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND UNCERTAINTY OF EARL...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. AREAS FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA COAST IF EARL/S TRACK CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/21Z 22.0 N 68.8 W 115 KTS
01/09Z 23.1 N 70.4 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 25.1 N 72.4 W 120 KTS
02/09Z 27.5 N 74.1 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.5 N 75.0 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.5 W 95 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 63.5 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 10
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:27 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2 N 67.9 W OR 1070 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION WITH A GRADAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

EARL HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE OF 939 MB...WHICH MEANS THAT EARL IS VERY WELL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. I/M NOT FORECAST FOR EARL TO GET MUCH STRONGER THAN WHAT HE IS NOT...IN FACT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EARL WILL MOVE INTO AN INCREASING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. SO EARL WILL BEGIN HIS WEAKENING PROCESS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL IS REMAINING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EARL SHOULD BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME TODAY AS THE LONGER EARL REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST...ALSO WILL BRING INCREASED AFFECTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO WATCHING THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO SEE WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK STILL CALLS FOR EARL TO REMAIN OFF SHORE...THOUGH THE MODELS ARE STILL SLOWLY PUSHING FURTHER WEST. FORECAST TRACK DO SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE SHORT TERM...THEN IT/S AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MAY SEE HURRICANE WATCHES POSTED LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 21.2 N 67.9 W 115 KTS
01/03Z 22.3 N 69.5 W 115 KTS
01/15Z 24.0 N 71.5 W 115 KTS
02/03Z 26.2 N 73.2 W 115 KTS
02/15Z 28.9 N 74.3 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 72.5 W 105 KTS
04/15Z 42.5 N 64.5 W 85 KTS
05/15Z 51.5 N 57.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

15Z Tropical Update-Fiona

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 AM EDT TUESDAY AUGUST 31, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.


AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9 N 55.3 W OR 440 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.

FIONA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE INCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION. THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED IN THUNDERSTORMS SOME...WINDS STILL REMAIN AT 35 KTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY IN SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH I HAVE INDICATED IN MY FORECAST...HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT AGAINST FIONA THAT COULD CAUSE HER TO DISSIPATE ALSO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FIONA WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRICTLY DEPENDENT UPON THAT FIONA CAN SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS A RAPID 285/22 KTS. FIONA WILL BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS SHE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST IS AN UPDATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT FIONA WILL LIKELY MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SAME TROUGH THAT WILL PULL EARL OUT TO SEA...PULL FIONA OUT TO SEA AS WELL. BUT THE MODELS ARE VERY DIVERSE IN THE LONG TERM TRACK FROM FIONA...SO AREAS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BERMUDA AND EVEN THE EAST COAST NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FIONA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/15Z 15.9 N 55.3 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 17.0 N 57.7 W 40 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.8 W 45 KTS
02/03Z 20.6 N 63.7 W 50 KTS
02/15Z 23.0 N 65.9 W 50 KTS
03/15Z 27.0 N 68.0 W 50 KTS
04/15Z 29.0 N 67.0 W 50 KTS
05/15Z 30.5 N 66.5 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Fiona

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:28 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0 N 50.8 W OR 745 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

FIONA IS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED STORM. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 2.0/2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS. FIONA ACTUALLY HAVE SOME CHANCES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE RATHER LIMITED. FIONA WILL MOVE THROUGH WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHEAR COULD BRING FIONA UP TO A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM. THEN FIONA WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSED BY EARL AND FIONA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FIONA WILL NOT SURVIVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEREFORE MY INTENSITY FORECAST HAD DECREASED DRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21 KTS. FIONA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SAME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS STEERED EARL. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECT DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN A MOTION TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS FIONA FOLLOWS THE RIDGE. THIS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF FAIRLY DIVERSE MODELS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/03Z 15.0 N 50.8 W 35 KTS
31/15Z 15.7 N 53.4 W 35 KTS
01/03Z 16.9 N 56.8 W 35 KTS
01/15Z 18.5 N 60.2 W 40 KTS
02/03Z 20.7 N 63.1 W 45 KTS
03/03Z 25.5 N 67.0 W 45 KTS
04/03Z 27.5 N 67.5 W 40 KTS
05/03Z 28.5 N 68.5 W 40 KTS

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 9
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9 N 65.8 W OR 105 MILES NORTH OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOLLOWED BY SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.

IT SEEMS THAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THAT EARL HAS FINALLY DECIDED TO STOP STRENGTHENING SOME. MIMIC SHOWS WINDS OF 115 KTS AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THAT WILL HALT STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE. ALSO THERE IS SOME SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN EARL...IN FACT I STILL HAVE EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND FINALLY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS EARL WILL MOVE THROUGH A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.

EARLS INITIAL MOTION 300/12 KTS. EARL CONTINUES ON HIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES WITH EARL WHICH IS EXPECTED WHEN HURRICANES ARE THIS STRONG. OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH I DID ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. STILL EXPECTING EARL TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...THEN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY BOOST EARL OUT TO SEA. HOW SOON WILL THIS HAPPEN AS EARL APPROACHES THE COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THERE IS STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TRACK OF EARL SO AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND STILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. I/M EXPECTING THAT POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE NC/VA BORDER BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

31/03Z 19.9 N 65.8 W 115 KTS
31/15Z 20.9 N 67.3 W 125 KTS
01/03Z 22.2 N 69.6 W 125 KTS
01/15Z 23.7 N 71.6 W 120 KTS
02/03Z 25.9 N 73.4 W 110 KTS
03/03Z 31.5 N 74.5 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 37.0 N 70.0 W 85 KTS
05/03Z 43.5 N 59.5 W 65 KTS

JACKSON

01Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST UPDATE 8B
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
9:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 9:00 PM EDT/0100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7 N 65.5 W OR 100 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS 938 MB/27.70 IN.

THE NEXT COMPLETE UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

23Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE FORECAST 8A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
7:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

AT 7:00 PM EDT/2300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 N 65.1 W OR 95 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 939 MB/27.73 IN.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AT 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY A COMPLETE UPDATE AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Fiona

TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
6:17 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4 N 48.7 W OR 890 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIONA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB/29.74 IN.

DUE TO THE DELAY TIME OF GETTING FORECAST TRACK COMPLETED...WILL ONLY SHOW THE FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY. A FULL DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 14.4 N 48.7 W 35 KTS
31/09Z 14.6 N 51.3 W 45 KTS
31/21Z 15.4 N 54.9 W 50 KTS
01/09Z 16.6 N 58.3 W 60 KTS
01/21Z 18.3 N 61.5 W 65 KTS
02/21Z 22.5 N 66.5 W 65 KTS
03/21Z 25.5 N 68.5 W 60 KTS
04/21Z 29.5 N 68.0 W 60 KTS

JACKSON

21Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 8
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

INTEREST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3 N 64.7 W OR 110 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB/27.99 IN.

EARL HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE RECON PLANE LEFT...ADT NUMBERS ARE ABOVE 6.0...WHICH NOW MAKES THIS A 115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FORECASTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING AS EARL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IN MY FORECAST...BUT NHC PEAKED EARL AT 130 KTS. I HAVE NOT GONE ABOVE 120 KTS BECAUSE EARL WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH AT LESS ONE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND DURING THAT TIME EARL WILL LOSE A LITTLE BIT OF ITS STRENGTH. ALSO BEYOND 72 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13 KTS. EARL IS STILL MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...WHICH IS A LITTLE LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ALL OF THE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHIFT EARL MORE AND MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AND IS SLOWLY INCREASING THE THREAT OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWER AND WILL NOT REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WITH THE DELAY MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH...EARL WILL NOT BEGIN A NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TURN UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE EARLIEST. THEREFORE...AREAS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SYSTEM AS MY FORECAST TRACK HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE WEST AND I DO BELIEVE THAT TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOMETIME ON TUESDAY.

NOTE: THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PLOT IS NOT ON THE MAP DUE TO A CLOSE UP MAP OF THE SOUTHEAST THAT I/M USING AND THE MAP DO NOT GO ANY FURTHER NORTH THAT 40 N. THIS MAP WILL USED UNTIL THE THREAT HAS SUBSIDED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/21Z 19.3 N 64.7 W 115 KTS
31/09Z 20.1 N 66.3 W 120 KTS
31/21Z 21.3 N 68.4 W 120 KTS
01/09Z 22.6 N 70.3 W 115 KTS
01/21Z 24.5 N 72.2 W 110 KTS
02/21Z 30.0 N 74.5 W 110 KTS
03/21Z 36.0 N 71.0 W 90 KTS
04/21Z 43.0 N 59.5 W 70 KTS

JACKSON

18Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL SPECIAL FORECAST 7
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
2:00 PM EDT MONDAY AUGUST 30, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

AREAS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 2:00 PM EDT/1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0 N 64.0 W OR 75 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND EARL COULD BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF EARL APPROACHING CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 955 MB/28.20 IN.

COMPLETE UPDATE COMING UP AT 5 PM EDT.


JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 13
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:11 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 39.3 N 53.0 W OR 510 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. DANIELLE IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB/28.94 IN.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MAY BE IN THE BEGINNING PHRASES OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM DANIELLE IS GONE AND THE CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED. WITH THAT IN MIND...INITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 70 KTS. DANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHE CONTINUES THE EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION 045/14 KTS. DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND WILL CONTINUE AT THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH MONDAY WHEN DANIELLE WILL INCREASE HER FORWARD SPEED AND GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES. FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING HER PHRASE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS WILL BE THE LAST FORECAST ISSUED ON DANIELLE FROM THE TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER. FOR OFFICIAL FORECASTS...YOU CAN GO TO THE NHC FORECAST SITE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV (ALL LOWERCASE LETTERS).

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 39.3 N 53.0 W 70 KTS
30/15Z 41.0 N 52.9 W 55 KTS
31/03Z 42.7 N 45.5 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
31/15Z 44.2 N 38.1 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
01/03Z 45.5 N 30.6 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON

03Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 6
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE EARL.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9 N 61.1 W OR 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH. EARL IS NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 971 MB/28.67 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 85 KTS ON THE SURFACE WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL HAVE AN OPEN 30 MILE EYE AND CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. MY INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND STILL IS LOWER THAN NHCS INTENSITY FORECAST WHERE THEIR FORECASTING EARL TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH. AS EARL MOVES TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...EARL WILL RUN INTO COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SHEAR AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN.

INITIAL MOTION OF EARL REMAINS 285/13 AND THIS HAS BEEN THE MOTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES TO MY FORECAST TRACK AS THE MODELS ARE A BIT HESITANT ON THE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST I HAVE SHIFTED MY FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EARL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PULL EARL OUT TO SEA. THE LONG TERM FORECAST I DID ADJUST TO THE EAST AND IS ON LINE WITH NHCS FORECAST TRACK. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND WHAT...IF ANY DIRECT AFFECTS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE EAST COAST...SO AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

30/03Z 17.9 N 61.1 W 85 KTS
30/15Z 18.7 N 62.6 W 90 KTS
31/03Z 20.0 N 64.6 W 95 KTS
31/15Z 21.3 N 66.6 W 100 KTS
01/03Z 22.7 N 68.4 W 105 KTS
02/03Z 27.5 N 71.5 W 105 KTS
03/03Z 33.5 N 72.0 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 40.5 N 65.0 W 90 KTS

JACKSON

00Z Tropical Update-Earl

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 5A
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
8:00 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 8:00 PM EDT/0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 60.3 W OR 100 MILES EAST OF BARBUDA. EARL IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL CROSS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY BE A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY. CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON AIRCRAFT IS 972 MB/28.70 IN.

A COMPLETE UPDATE ON EARL AT 11 PM EDT.

JACKSON

21Z Tropcial Update-Danielle

HURRICANE DANIELLE FORECAST 12
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:28 PM EDT SUNDAY AUGUST 29, 2010

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE IS LOCATED NEAR 38.0 N 54.5 W OR 605 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE RACE. DANIELLE IS RACING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 MPH AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DANIELLE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB/28.85 IN.

DANIELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WHILE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...WILL KEEP DANIELLE A 70 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW. ON SATELLITE DANIELLE/S CENTER HAVE BEEN EXPOSED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER AND WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION 025/22 KTS. DANIELLE WILL SLOW DOWN TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY BEFORE BEING PICKED UP AGAIN BY THE WESTERLIES AND THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST AND MOVING DANIELLE FURTHER EASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS DANIELLE AWAY FROM NOVA SCOTIA.

NOTE: BECAUSE THE MAPS I HAVE DO NOT GO NORTH OF 40W WILL NOT INCLUDE MAP FOR REST OF DANIELLE/S LIFE...WILL JUST USE SATELLITE PICTURE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

29/21Z 38.0 N 54.5 W 70 KTS
30/09Z 39.8 N 52.5 W 60 KTS
30/21Z 41.7 N 48.5 W 50 KTS
31/09Z 43.4 N 40.6 W 35 KTS
31/21Z 44.7 N 34.3 W 30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
01/21Z 48.5 N 24.0 W 20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON