15Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 16
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:13 AM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9 N 74.8 W OR 300 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 18 MPH...ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH. EARL REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY...AND EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.

EARL EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND NOW IS STARTING TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. WINDS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE AT 120 KTS. FORECAST IS FOR EARL TO AT FIRST SLOWLY WEAKEN...BUT AS EARL MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND HIGHER SHEAR...EARL WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST SHOWS THIS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 355/16 KTS. EARL IS BEGINNING TO MOVE MORE AND MORE TO THE NORTH. THE KEY LONGITUDE IS 75W. AS LONG AS EARL DO NOT CROSS MUCH PAST 75W...THE CORE OF EARL WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. AREAS OF CAPE COD MAY SEE A DIRECT HIT FROM EARL BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHICH PROMPTED HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO UP. ALL AREA ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
02/15Z 30.9 N 74.8 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.8 N 75.0 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 33.9 N 73.9 W 105 KTS
04/03Z 38.4 N 70.9 W 95 KTS
04/15Z 42.0 N 66.5 W 75 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/15Z 50.5 N 57.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON