HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 15
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:07 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8 N 73.8 W OR 520 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF EARL WILL BE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND PASSING NEAR OF OVER THE OUTER BANKS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 140 MPH. EARL IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 932 MB/27.52 IN.
NOAA RECON FLIGHT DURING THE INVESTIGATION OF EARL FOUND A WIND SPEED OF 137 KTS...WHICH EQUALS TO ABOUT 120 KTS AT THE SURFACE AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. EARL IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ON ALL QUADS...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. I/M NOT FORECASTING ANYMORE STRENGTHENING WITH EARL...AND WHILE EARL DO HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE...BY THIS TIME TOMORROW IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN. ONCE EARL MOVES NORTH OF THE DELMARVA...WATER TEMPERATURES DROP AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND EARL WILL BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL PHRASE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BE AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.
INITIAL MOTION DESPITE SOME WOBBLES TO THE NORTH IS 330/16 KTS. ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WORRY ME AS A FORECASTER CURRENTLY IS THAT EARL IS MOVING FASTER THAN THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH EARL OUT TO SEA. WITH THAT IN MIND...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT EARL/S TURN TO THE NORTHEAST COULD BE DELAYED BY 10 TO 20 MILES AND IT MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS. WHILE THAT SCENARIO WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL BE KEPT IN CONSIDERATION FOR TOMORROW/S VERY IMPORTANT FORECASTS. MY OVERALL FORECAST TRACK IS A BASIC UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD NUDGE BY 10 OR SO MILES. EVEN THEN...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EYE OF EARL...THIS IS A LARGE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT FOR A LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
02/03Z 27.8 N 73.8 W 120 KTS
02/15Z 29.7 N 74.9 W 120 KTS
03/03Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 115 KTS
03/15Z 35.0 N 74.1 W 100 KTS
04/03Z 38.0 N 70.0 W 90 KTS
05/03Z 45.5 N 61.0 W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z 53.5 N 50.5 W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
JACKSON
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