TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:37 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO..SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7 N 21.4 W OR 250 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH AND THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB/29.71 IN.
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND FORECASTS HAVE BEGUN ON THE 12TH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. SHEAR IS AROUND 10 KTS AND SHOULD LESSEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS WHEN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.
INITIAL MOTION 275/12 KTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING THE DEPRESSION WELL AWAY FROM ANY LAND AREAS AND MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO. FORECAST TRACK IS NORTHEAST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12/15Z 12.7 N 21.4 W 30 KTS
13/03Z 13.3 N 23.1 W 40 KTS
13/15Z 14.5 N 25.5 W 50 KTS
14/03Z 16.0 N 27.8 W 60 KTS
14/15Z 17.6 N 29.8 W 65 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 33.0 W 75 KTS
16/15Z 25.5 N 36.5 W 70 KTS
17/15Z 28.5 N 40.0 W 60 KTS
JACKSON
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