03Z Tropical Update

TROPICAL STORM IGOR FORECAST 1
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 8, 2010

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8 N 24.6 W OR 70 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...AND STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IGOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB/29.68 IN.

IGOR IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME SHEAR AND HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY AT 1.5/1.5 WHICH IS ONLY AT 25 KTS WHILE ADT NUMBERS ARE AT 3.0 OR 45 KTS...SO COMPROMISED AND MAINTAINED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KTS. WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHEAR AND WILL BE UNDER 10 KTS OF SHEAR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH ALL MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARDS STRENGTHENING AND IGOR WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT DO NOT THINK THAT IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO NHCs.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KTS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IGOR CONTINUES TO FEEL THE LOW TO ITS NORTH...BUT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS...IGOR MAY SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THIS WILL CAUSE IGOR TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AGAIN. FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST OF NHCs FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

09/03Z 13.8 N 24.6 W 40 KTS
09/15Z 14.3 N 25.9 W 45 KTS
10/03Z 15.1 N 28.0 W 50 KTS
10/15Z 16.2 N 30.6 W 55 KTS
11/03Z 17.3 N 33.5 W 65 KTS
12/03Z 19.0 N 39.5 W 75 KTS
13/03Z 20.0 N 45.0 W 85 KTS
14/03Z 21.0 N 49.5 W 90 KTS

JACKSON