03Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 18
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER
* STONINGTON MAINE EASTWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO WEST OF STONINGTON MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET ON THE SOUTH SHORE AND WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR ON THE NORTH SHORE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER EASTWARD TO FORT LAWRENCE AND FROM TIDNISH WESTWARD TO SHEDIAC
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM FORT LAWRENCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO DIGBY...MEDWAY HARBOUR NORTHEASTWARD TO POINT TUPPER...AND AULDS COVE WESTWARD TO TIDNISH
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8 N 74.4 W OR 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH...A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH. EARL IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB/28.08 IN.

EARL IS STILL ON HIS WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WERE MEASURED AT 124 MPH...WINDS AT THE SURFACE WERE NO HIGHER THAN 90 KTS SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMPLE...EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WITHIN 36 HOURS...EARL WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 015/16 KTS. EARL AT TIMES HAVE BEEN WOBBLING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT TIMES BUT OVERALL IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH. FORECAST TRACK IS FOR EARL TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS COURSE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.

THOUGH EARL IS WEAKENING...THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING SO EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA AS WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NORTH CAROLINA TO NOVA SCOTIA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

03/03Z 33.8 N 74.4 W 90 KTS
03/15Z 35.3 N 73.4 W 80 KTS
04/03Z 37.9 N 70.3 W 75 KTS
04/15Z 41.1 N 66.3 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/03Z 45.3 N 61.6 W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
06/03Z DISSIPATED

JACKSON