HURRICANE IGOR FORECAST 3
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:10 AM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010
AT 11:00 AM EDT/1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7 N 45.7 W OR 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IGOR WAS MOVING TO THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...THE GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH. IGOR IS A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND IGOR WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB/28.64 IN.
IGOR IS NOW GOING THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE. ADT NUMBERS ARE AS HIGH AS 5.5 WITH OTHER NUMBERS AROUND 4.5/4.5. WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KTS. WITH VERY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR BELOW 10 KTS...IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IGOR COULD COME VERY CLOSE TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS BEFORE IGOR GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND WILL WEAKEN SOME BUT WILL REMAIN A MAJOR...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIAL MOTION 270/11 KTS. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE IGOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST TRACK SHOULD KEEP IGOR AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NOW WHETHER IGOR WILL HAVE AN AFFECTS ON THE UNITED STATES OR BERMUDA REMAINS TO BE SEEN...LOOKING AT THE LONGER TERM MODELS A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL IGOR OUT TO SEA. FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12/15Z 17.7 N 45.7 W 90 KTS
13/03Z 18.3 N 47.3 W 95 KTS
13/15Z 18.9 N 49.6 W 105 KTS
14/03Z 19.5 N 51.8 W 115 KTS
14/15Z 20.0 N 53.8 W 125 KTS
15/15Z 21.5 N 57.0 W 130 KTS
16/15Z 24.0 N 59.5 W 130 KTS
17/15Z 27.0 N 62.5 W 120 KTS
JACKSON
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