21Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 17
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
5:00 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 2, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
* WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS EASTWARD AROUND CAPE COD TO HULL INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM MEDWAY HARBOUR TO DIGBY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT
* THE EASTERN PORTION OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF HULL MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM ECUM SECUM TO MEDWAY HARBOUR AND FROM DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM JUST WEST OF FORT LAWRENCE WESTWARD TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5 N 75.2 W OR 185 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER RATE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL COME NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND EARL WILL LIKELY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB/27.96 IN.

EARL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE EYE IS NOW FILLED IN AND WINDS ARE NOW DOWN TO 100 KTS. EARL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS HE HEADS TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. EARL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE FORECAST POINTS THIS OUT.

INITIAL IS DUE NORTH AT 16 KTS. EARL HAVE MADE THE DUE NORTH TURN. NOW THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL IT BE UNTIL EARL BEGINS TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST TRACK REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED AND THINKING THAT THE NORTHEAST TURN WILL HAPPEN IN 10 TO 12 HOURS COMING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS AND THE OUTER BANKS BEFORE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE HURRICANE CENTER AS EARL IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

02/21Z 32.5 N 75.2 W 100 KTS
03/09Z 34.0 N 74.7 W 100 KTS
03/21Z 36.4 N 72.5 W 95 KTS
04/09Z 39.2 N 68.8 W 80 KTS
04/21Z 43.1 N 64.4 W 65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 55.0 W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING

JACKSON