TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST 2
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
11:00 PM EDT SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 12, 2010
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...INCLUDING MAIO...SAO TIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA
AT 11:00 PM EDT/0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIA WAS LOCATED 13.5 N 23.5 W OR 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. JULIA WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH AND STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB/29.65 IN.
JULIA IS CONTINUING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND 35 KTS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE EASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING JULIA WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL GIVE JULIA A CHANCE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND JULIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND JULIA WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10 KTS. JULIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEER BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND A GENERAL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST THINKING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND MY FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF NHC FORECAST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
13/03Z 13.5 N 23.5 W 35 KTS
13/15Z 14.4 N 25.2 W 45 KTS
14/03Z 15.8 N 27.5 W 55 KTS
14/15Z 17.4 N 29.7 W 65 KTS
15/03Z 19.2 N 31.6 W 70 KTS
16/03Z 22.5 N 35.5 W 75 KTS
17/03Z 25.5 N 38.5 W 75 KTS
18/03Z 28.5 N 43.5 W 65 KTS
JACKSON
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