21Z Tropical Update

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST 14
TROPICAL FORECAST CENTER
6:16 PM EDT WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 1, 2010

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 5:00 PM EDT/2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3 N 73.3 W OR 630 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. EARL WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 135 MPH. EARL IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB/27.79 IN.

DUE TO THE LATENESS OF THIS FORECAST...THE DISCUSSION SECTION WILL BE SKIPPED AND UPDATED AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:

01/21Z 26.3 N 73.3 W 115 KTS
02/09Z 28.0 N 74.5 W 115 KTS
02/21Z 30.7 N 75.6 W 110 KTS
03/09Z 33.2 N 75.3 W 105 KTS
03/21Z 36.1 N 73.0 W 100 KTS
04/21Z 43.5 N 63.0 W 70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
05/21Z 51.0 N 51.0 W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

JACKSON