1600Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 15.9 N 51.1 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...Bill is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is expected and Bill could become a major hurricane later today or Wednesday. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest in about 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure 963 mb/28.44 in.

Continuing to watch Bill become better organized and have developed an eye during the overnight hours and have increased winds to 90 kts...though the ADT models show Bill as strong as 117 kts. Bill will continue to strengthen and will likely be a major hurricane later today or on Wednesday as conditions will remain favorable. An Air Force Recon Plane will be investagating Bill later today. Bill will begin to encounter unfavorable conditions in about 3 to 4 days and a slight weakening trend will begin...but is still expected to remain a major hurricane through the forecast period.

Initial motion 285/14kts. Bill will continue on a west-northwest track for about another 24 hours when a longwave will influence Bill/s motion more towards the northwest and will miss the Lesser Antilles...Puerto Rico...and the Bahamas. A second and stronger longwave will move off the East Coast on Friday or Saturday and this should move Bill to the north and northeast...not directly affecting the East Coast...but could bring some higher than normal surf. Forecast track to bring Bill close to Bermuda by the weekend as a major hurricane or a strong category 2 storm. While the East Coast looks to be in the clear now...any further movements to the left of forecast track will increase chances for the East Coast...so still continue to monitor Bill for another 24 to 48 hours before the all clear is given. Bermuda need to monitor this system for possible affects over the weekend.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

19/04Z 16.5 N 52.7 W 95 kts

19/16Z 17.8 N 55.1 W 100 kts

20/04Z 19.3 N 57.6 W 105 kts

20/16Z 20.9 N 60.3 W 105 kts

21/16Z 24.5 N 65.0 W 105 kts

22/16Z 29.5 N 67.0 W 100 kts

23/16Z 34.5 N 63.0 W 90 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist