0300Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the center of Hurricane Bill is located near 15.0 N 47.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are at 100 mph...further strengthening is expected and Bill is expected to become a major hurricane in 36 hours. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest in about 36 to 48 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure 967 mb/28.56 in.

Bill continues to become better organized and evidence of an eye developing on the latest satellite pictures...have kept the initial intensity at 85 kts or 100 mph. I have not changed the intensity forecast from the previous update and still fully expect for Bill to become a major hurricane in about 36 hours and maintain major hurricane status for the remainder of the forecast period.

Initial motion 285/15 kts. Bill will continue on this west-northwest motion for the next 24 to 36 hours when the first of two longwaves will move off the East Coast and will gradually turn Bill to the northwest. A second and stronger trough will steer Bill to the north-northwest...but as of now...no immediate turn to the north or north-northeast yet. Right now...I am thinking that areas from Florida to about Charleston SC is likely safe from Bill right now...but areas north of Charleston SC need to continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

18/15Z 15.7 N 50.4 W 90 kts

19/03Z 16.7 N 52.8 W 95 kts

19/15Z 17.9 N 55.2 W 100 kts

20/03Z 19.4 N 57.3 W 105 kts

21/03Z 23.0 N 62.0 W 105 kts

22/03Z 28.0 N 65.0 W 100 kts

23/03Z 36.0 N 68.5 W 100 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist