1630Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Ana

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Ana is located near 14.3 N 48.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...some slow strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Movement is toward the west at 16 mph...and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.

Looking at Ana right now...she is once again moving through increasing shear and the thunderstorms that she had built up earlier this morning have waned. Ana will be moving through 15 to 20 kts of shear over the next few days and with Ana being such a small system...the shear could greatly effect her circulation. Right now however I am going with slow strengthening through the forecast period and have increased the intensity from the last package to a minimum hurricane by day 5.

Initial motion 265/14 kts. Ana have been moving just south of due west due...mainly due to her being a small system...but I am expecting a gradual turn to the west-northwest in time and will affect the Leeward Islands to the point that some watches may be needed later today. Following the Leeward Islands should continue to the west-northwest through the Southern Bahamas and could be near Southern Florida as a hurricane in 5 days. However if Ana struggles through the shear...her track will be further south. Overall...my forecast track is a little north of the previous update and close to NHCs forecast track...bringing Ana very near the Southern Florida coast in 5 days. All areas from the Leeward Islands to the southeast and Gulf coasts need to monitor the progress of this storm.

Forecast positions and intensity:

16/04Z 15.0 N 50.5 W 40 kts

16/16Z 16.0 N 54.1 W 45 kts

17/04Z 17.1 N 57.9 W 45 kts

17/16Z 18.1 N 62.1 W 55 kts

18/16Z 20.5 N 70.0 W 60 kts

19/16Z 23.0 N 76.5 W 60 kts

20/16Z 24.5 N 80.5 W 65 kts

Tropical Depression Three

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the center of Tropical Depression Three is located near 11.5 N 36.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...some strengthening is expected and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or on Sunday. Movement is toward the west at 20 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb/29.71 in.

I have been monitoring this system since it moved off the African coast several days ago and have done nothing but get better organized with each passing hour and now...thunderstorms concentrated near the center of circulation...and this system has now been classified as a tropical depression. This system is further south than Ana...so this depression will have less dry air to worry about and less of a shear environment...plus the circulation is bigger than that of Ana and all forecast models do indicate that this system will strengthen over the next 5 days and I have this system a hurricane in 48 hours and near major hurricane strength in 5 days...at 90 kts and looking at some of the longer term models...this system have the potential to be much stronger than what I have forecasted.

Initial motion 265/17 kts. This system again is further south than Ana...and with this system expected to strengthen quickly...the general motion of the depression will be west-northwest in time. Current forecast track will bring the depression just north of the Leeward Islands in 5 days...but this system could be strong enough that effects will be felt so the Leeward Islands could receive a double whammy over the next 3 to 5 days.

Forecast positions and intensity:

16/04Z 11.6 N 36.3 W 35 kts

16/16Z 11.6 N 39.5 W 45 kts

17/04Z 12.0 N 42.7 W 55 kts

17/16Z 12.6 N 45.9 W 65 kts

18/16Z 14.5 N 52.0 W 80 kts

19/16Z 17.0 N 57.0 W 90 kts

20/16Z 20.5 N 62.5 W 90 kts