2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck...including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. Areas from Virginia to New England need to also monitor the progress of Danny as additional watches and warnings may be needed.

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 30.8 N 75.7 W or 310 miles south of Cape Hatteras. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...little change in strength is expected. Movement is toward the northwest at 9 mph with a gradual motion to the north and northeast by Saturday...on the forecast track...Danny will be near Cape Hatteras by early Saturday morning. Minimum central pressure as reported by Reconnaissance Aircraft is 1007 mb/29.74 in.

Danny is struggling to remain a tropical storm...but looking at the mircowave images during the past few hours...looks like Danny have increase some in winds...so have bumped up the winds to 40 kts. To keep this fairly short...Danny is not expected to increase much more in intensity and conditions will become unfavorable over the next 12 to 24 hours and will likely become an extratropical system within 72 hours...but could become stronger as an extratropical system.

Initial motion 315/8 kts. Satellite images show that Danny could at least within the last few frames may be moving more to the north but have kept the motion to the northwest for now. Track forecast basically moves Danny to the northeast at a faster forward speed and should not with my forecast track affect any land areas. However...Danny could get close enough to the North Carolina coast that a tropical storm warning could be needed by tonight so all areas from the Carolinas northward need to continue to monitor Danny.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

28/21Z 30.8 N 75.7 W 40 kts

29/09Z 32.6 N 75.3 W 40 kts

29/21Z 35.7 N 73.2 W 40 kts

30/09Z 39.0 N 69.5 W 40 kts

30/21Z 42.7 N 64.1 W 40 kts...becoming extratropical

31/21Z 47.0 N 45.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist