2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At 5:00 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout to Duck...including the Ablemarle and Pamlico Sounds. Tropical Storm watch mean that tropical storm force winds are possible within 36 hours. Areas from Virginia to New England also need to monitor the progress of Danny as additional watches may be required over the next few days.

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 27.8 N 73.6 W or 580 miles south-southeast of Kill Devil Hills NC. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 50 mph...while Danny have weakened somewhat...slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Movement during the past few hours have been nearly stationary...but a westward motion at 8 mph will resume later today...with a gradual motion to the northwest on Friday. On the forecast track...Danny will come near the North Carolina coast on Saturday. Minimum central pressure reported by Reconnaissance Plane is 1008 mb/29.77 in.

Looking at satellite pictures over the past few hours show that the center of Danny remains exposed and was at times difficult to locate. Dvorak and ADT numbers place Danny at minimum tropical storm strength...but reports from Microwave Satellite and Recon Flight places winds at 45 kts...so have went with this for initial intensity. While water temps are well in the 80s and shear have been around 10 to 20 kts...Danny have been struggling to get organized...so for my intensity forecast have lowered peak winds to just below hurricane force as now I do not believe at this time that Danny will not make it to hurricane status. Have gone with gradual strengthening through 48 hours...then a quick transition to extratropical status in 4 days.

Motion during the past few hours have been nearly stationary. With this stationary motion...the center have again going through reforming stages...this time further to the west which have changed the forecast track from the last update. I have adjusted the forecast track to the west and because of the adjustment...tropical storm watches have been posted for parts of the North Carolina coast. With Danny developing as slow he will continue on a westward track longer than anticipated...and impacts for the North Carolina coast have increased...and even now...a little more skeptical if the front that will move to the Mid-Atlantic area will affect the overall motion of Danny. If westward adjustments continue...then watches in time will be adjusted northward over the next several days. Overall forecast track still pushes Danny northeast and closer to New England and Nova Scotia in about 3 to 4 days. Therefore...all areas from Virginia northward need to monitor Danny closely over the next few days.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

27/21Z 27.8 N 73.6 W 45 kts

28/09Z 28.3 N 74.7 W 45 kts

28/21Z 29.9 N 75.8 W 50 kts

29/09Z 32.3 N 75.7 W 55 kts

29/21Z 35.3 N 73.6 W 60 kts

30/21Z 43.0 N 66.0 W 60 kts

31/21Z 47.0 N 49.0 W 40 kts...extratropical

01/21Z extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist