At 5:00 AM EDT (0900Z) the center of Tropical Storm Ana is located near 14.6 N 46.3 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and further strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Movement is to the west at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest in 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.
Finally...we have our first named storm of the season and not too far behind from having a second named storm as well. But let/s concentrate on Ana which have developed back into a tropical system a few hours ago. Looking at the intensity forecast...with a moderate shearing environment and water temperatures around 27 to 28C...expecting for Ana to continue to intensify over the next 5 days. I have forecasted for Ana to reach near hurricane strength in day 5.
Initial motion is 270/13 kts. Expecting that Ana will continue to move to the west for another 12 to 24 hours followed by a motion to the west-northwest for the remainder of the forecast period. Towards the end of the forecast period will have to watch the progress of Ana very carefully as it could affect the United States...possibly as a hurricane so all areas from the Southeast to the Gulf Coast need to monitor this system.
Forecast Positions:
15/21Z 15.2 N 48.8 W 40 kts
16/09Z 16.0 N 52.1 W 45 kts
16/21Z 17.0 N 55.9 W 50 kts
17/09Z 17.9 N 60.0 W 50 kts
18/09Z 20.0 N 68.0 W 55 kts
19/09Z 22.0 N 75.5 W 55 kts
20/09Z 23.5 N 80.5 W 60 kts
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