Hurricane Bill
At 6:00 PM EDT...the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island of Bermuda. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions is expected...generally in 12 to 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the island of Bermuda. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...generally within 36 hours.
At 6:00 PM EDT (2200Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 23.8 N 62.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...which makes Bill a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale...some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. Movement is to the northwest at 20 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the north-northwest on Friday. Minimum central pressure from Recon Airplane is 948 mb/27.99 in.
Eyewall replacement cycle has ended and Bill have responded by strengthening from the previous update. The eye is well-defined with very good outflow. T-numbers have also increased...therefore winds have increased to 110 kts. While I continue to call for more strengthening for Bill...I have lowered how much Bill will strengthen and do not think now that Bill will regain category 4 strength. After about 36 hours...Bill will begin to encounter some cooler water temperatures and increasing southwest shear... and will call for Bill to gradually weaken...Bill will weaken much more rapidly after 72 hours and could begin to lose tropical characteristics during this time and will become extratropical between days 4 and 5.
Initial motion 305/17 kts. I am stil expecting Bill to completely miss all land areas...including the Canadian Maritimes at this time...but I have nudge my forecast track slightly to the left. This trough will expect to pull Bill out to sea in about 3 days and kick it rapidly to the northeast. Because Bill is a large hurricane and I have nudged my track to the left...Bermuda is still not out of the woods yet and tropical storm warnings have been posted. The East Coast of the U.S. will also be affected by Bill in the form of high waves and dangerous seas...and should stay out of the water. Bermuda should continue to monitor Bill due to any track changes to the right will increase danger to Bermuda and be prepared.
Forecast Positions and Intensity:
20/22Z 23.8 N 62.8 W 110 kts
21/10Z 25.1 N 65.3 W 110 kts
21/22Z 27.3 N 67.8 W 115 kts
22/10Z 29.5 N 69.6 W 115 kts
22/22Z 32.1 N 70.4 W 110 kts
23/22Z 39.0 N 67.5 W 100 kts
24/22Z 43.5 N 55.0 W 70 kts...becoming extratropical
25/22Z 45.5N 36.5 W 35 kts...extratropical
Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist
Tropical Specialist
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