At 5:00 PM EDT...the government of the Netherlands Antilles have issued a tropical storm watch St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius. Tropical storm watch mean that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.
At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z) the center of Tropical Storm Ana was located near 14.4 N 49.6 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...some slight strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours. Movement is towards the west at 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the west-northwest in 24 hours. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb/29.68 in.
Ana have once again been struggling with the upper level winds...and have not strengthen during the past 6 hours and Dvorak Estimates continue to show 2.5 so have left the intensity at 35 kts. Upper level winds will gradually become more favorable in about 12 hours and with warmer water temperatures...this will allow for Ana to intensify over the next 5 days and I do have Ana becoming a hurricane in about 4 days.
Initial motion 270/15 kts. Due to the slight south of due west motion during the past 6 hours...I have moved the forecast track south of the previous forecast track and because of the southward adjustment...Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for portions of the Leeward Islands. Beyond the Leeward Islands...I expect that Ana to move through Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 4 days and towards the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 5 days. There is still a few uncertainties with this exact track as a stronger Ana will keep the forecast track further north so all areas from the Caribbean to the Gulf coast need to monitor the progress of Ana.
Forecast Position and Intensity:
16/09Z 14.9 N 52.3 W 35 kts
16/21Z 15.7 N 55.9 W 40 kts
17/09Z 16.5 N 59.8 W 45 kts
17/21Z 17.5 N 63.8 W 50 kts
18/21Z 19.5 N 71.5 W 60 kts
19/21Z 21.5 N 78.0 W 65 kts
20/21Z 23.5 N 83.0 W 65 kts
Tropical Storm BillAt 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Bill as located near 11.4 N 37.2 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and strengthening is forecasted and Bill could become a hurricane in 48 hours. Movement is to the west near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb/29.65 in.
Bill is continuing to become better organized and with the Dvorak numbers at 2.5...Bill became the second named storm today. With a low to moderate shearing environment and water temperatures 27 to 28 C...conditions will remain favorable for continued development during the next 5 days and I still have Bill becoming a hurricane in 48 hours and a strong category 2 hurricane in 5 days.
Initial motion 265/15 kts. I have not changed the overall forecast track of Bill from the previous forecast update. I fully still expect that Bill will gradually make a west-northwest motion and with that motion...Bill should not affect the Leeward Islands at this time...but with Bill being a fairly large tropical system...some affects will be felt. I/m also thinking that Bill will remain north of Puerto Rico and further down the line...could have some impacts on the Bahamas...but that is outside the forecast period. All areas from the Leeward Islands to the Gulf coast and even the southeast coast need to monitor the progress of Bill.
Forecast Position and Intensity:
16/09Z 11.4 N 37.2 W 40 kts
16/21Z 11.8 N 40.2 W 50 kts
17/09Z 12.4 N 43.1 W 55 kts
17/21Z 13.2 N 46.1 W 65 kts
18/21Z 15.0 N 52.0 W 80 kts
19/21Z 18.0 N 57.0 W 85 kts
20/21Z 20.5 N 63.0 W 90 kts
Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist
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