1600Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At Noon EDT (1600Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 18.7 N 56.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...this makes Bill an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Additional strengthening is possible and there is an outside chance that Bill could come close to category 5 strength. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual motion to the northwest later today or on Thursday. Minimum central pressure as report by P-3 NOAA Hurricane Hunters 950 mb/28.05 in.

This is a fairly quick update on the location and strength of Bill...which continues to strengthen and is now a Category 4 hurricane. My intensity forecast do continue to increase Bill for the next 36 hours...peaking at 125 kt or 145 mph...11 mph off of a category 5 hurricane. Bill have about again 36 hours of strengthening before encountering southwest shear and cooler water temperatures in which time Bill will begin to slowly weaken...but I am fully expecting for Bill to remain a major hurricand for the next 4 days. Areas along the Northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda need to monitor the progress of this storm.

I will have a complete update including storm track and a full discussion by 8 PM EDT.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

19/16Z 18.7 N 56.0 W 120 kts

20/04Z 19.9 N 58.4 W 120 kts

20/16Z 21.4 N 61.1 W 120 kts

21/04Z 23.0 N 63.6 W 125 kts

21/16Z 24.8 N 65.9 W 120 kts

22/16Z 30.0 N 68.5 W 115 kts

23/16Z 36.5 N 65.5 W 100 kts

24/16Z 42.5 N 55.0 W 75 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist