2100Z Tropical Update

Tropical Storm Danny

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the center of Tropical Storm Danny is located near 25.3 N 71.0 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...slow strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 14 mph...gradual motion to the northwest will be expected on Thursday and a north-northwest motion on Friday. Minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is 1009 mb/29.80 in.

Looking at Danny during the past 5 to 6 hours have revealed little change in structure and intensity as it remains at 40 kts. Shear around Danny is between 10 and 20 kts and is expected to remain near that category in the near term future...however with water temps well into the 80s...I do expect Danny to slowly strengthen and still expect that Danny could reach hurricane strength briefly in about 72 hours. Afterwards...Danny will begin to weaken as he heads towards cooler waters and will become extratropical by the end of the forecast period.

Motion a questionable 300/12 kts. Danny may be trying to reform its center near the heaviest thunderstorms. Forecast track right now is in the air as forecast models are all over the place on where Danny could go and what impacts if any he will have on the East Coast. My current forecast track takes Danny on a slow northwest track for the first 48 hours...then will move to the north-northwest in response to the sub-tropical ridge in the central Atlantic. There will be a front that will head towards the East Coast...that could ultimately decide on when Danny makes that northeast motion...right now...my forecast track kicks Danny to the northeast before getting close to the East Coast...and moving out to sea not affecting any land areas. But any deviation to the left will mean greater impacts for the Carolinas to New England so all areas need to monitor this system very closely the rest of the week and into the weekend and regardless of the final track of Danny...expect increasing waves for the East Coast as soon as tonight or Thursday.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

26/21Z 25.3 N 71.0 W 40 kts

27/09Z 25.8 N 72.5 W 40 kts

27/21Z 26.6 N 74.1 W 45 kts

28/09Z 27.6 N 75.1 W 50 kts

28/21Z 29.0 N 75.6 W 55 kts

29/21Z 33.0 N 73.0 W 65 kts

30/21Z 39.0 N 67.0 W 65 kts

31/21Z 44.0 N 53.5 W 45 kts...extratropical

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist