2100Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 5:00 PM EDT (2100Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 16.4 N 51.8 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...this makes Bill a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Further strengthening is expected and Bill could become a major hurricane later today or Wednesday. Movement is towards the west-northwest at 16 mph...this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest on Wednesday or Thursday. Minimum central pressure as reported by Air Force Recon flight is 962 mb/28.41 in.

Bill continues to deepen and visible satellite show a well-define eye and outflow on all quads. While T numbers are at 5.0...during the past 2 hours...Bill have increased to 95 kts...and will be going with this for initial intensity. Bill is on the grasp of becoming a major hurricane and is expected to do so later today or Wednesday. It is also possible that Bill could become stronger than anticipated as a rapid intensification process may be on going. While I still have Bill peaking at 105 kts...there is still a good chance that Bill could be much stronger. As we head to days 4 and 5...increased shear and slightly cooler water temperatures...Bill will begin to slowly weaken but will still be a dangerous hurricane.

Initial motion 290/14 kts. Bill is nudging more and more to the northwest in response of a trough moving off the East Coast....that will steer Bill more to the northwest. Then a second longwave will push off the East Coast by the weekend and this trough will steer Bill more to the north and northeast...effectively missing the East Coast...but could pose a danger to Bermuda in about 4 days as a major hurricane. While the threat is decreasing for the East Coast...expect waves to increase by the weekend and Bermuda continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Position and Intensity:

18/21Z 16.4 N 51.8 W 95 kts

19/09Z 17.2 N 54.1 W 100 kts

19/21Z 18.6 N 56.7 W 105 kts

20/09Z 20.1 N 59.5 W 105 kts

20/21Z 21.9 N 62.3 W 105 kts

21/21Z 26.0 N 67.0 W 105 kts

22/21Z 31.5 N 68.0 W 105 kts

23/21Z 37.5 N 63.5 W 90 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist