0300Z Tropical Update

Hurricane Bill

At 11:00 PM EDT (0300Z)...the eye of Hurricane Bill is located near 17.1 N 53.1 W. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...which makes Bill a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours and Bill could become a category 4 hurricane on Wednesday. Movement is to the west-northwest at 15 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn to the northwest on Wednesday. Minimum central pressure as reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 952 mb/28.11 in.

Bill is currently going through a mini rapid intensification cycle. Earlier this evening...NOAA Hurricane Hunters found 110 kt winds...since then have level off a bit...though T numbers have been between 6.0 and even 7.0 on the ADT...not going to go that strong...but will go with 110 kts. Bill have about 24 to 30 hours left of strengthening to go before Bill begins to encounter some increase in southwest shear...and with Bill being such a large hurricane...weakening will be very slow to occur at first...but as Bill moves into cooler waters...Bill will begin to weaken a little more rapidly...but Bill is expected to remain a major hurricane for about 4 days.

Initial motion 295/13 kts. Bill continues to make more and more of a turn to the northwest...and have not made much changes to the forecast track as I am still expecting for Bill to be influenced by two longwave troughs over the next several days. At this point...not expecting Bill to affect land so much but Bermuda could experience some effects from Bill by the weekend. The Leeward Islands westward to Puerto Rico will experience higher than normal surf within the next few days and the East Coast by the weekend. Bermuda need to continue to monitor the progress of Bill.

Forecast Positions and Intensity:

19/03Z 17.1 N 53.1 W 110 kts

19/15Z 18.4 N 55.5 W 115 kts

20/03Z 20.1 N 58.3 W 120 kts

20/15Z 22.8 N 61.2 W 115 kts

21/03Z 23.5 N 64.0 W 115 kts

22/03Z 28.0 N 68.0 W 115 kts

23/03Z 33.5 N 68.0 W 100 kts

24/03Z 39.5 N 61.0 W 85 kts

Byron Jackson
Tropical Specialist